GM Scores: Ned Colletti

After a couple weeks away, I’m back and looking at Los Angeles Dodgers GM Ned Colletti. Colletti has been the GM in L.A. for 5 seasons. He’s made 43 trades and 72 signings.

Colletti has averaged 14.2 WAR per year from his transactions. He’s added a total of 70.8 WAR over his tenure. The yearly totals:
2006: 36.1
2007: 0.1
2008: 3.1
2009: 31.7
2010: 2.1

Trades
For Colletti’s trades, he’s given up 8.9 WAR and received 18.7 WAR; it’s a net WAR of 9.8.

Top 5 Deals
8.9 Net WAR – 12/13/2005: Traded Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez to the A’s for Andre Ethier.
3.6 Net WAR – 07/31/2008: Traded Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris to the Pirates for Manny Ramirez.
2.2 Net WAR – 07/31/2006: Traded Cesar Izturis to the Cubs for Greg Maddux.
1.6 Net WAR – 07/30/2009: Traded Josh Bell and Steve Johnson to the Orioles for George Sherrill.
1.3 Net WAR – 07/31/2010: Traded Blake DeWitt, Brett Wallach, and Kyle Smit to the Cubs for Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot.

The Dodgers are still receiving WAR for Ethier; their trademates could still receive WAR for Morris, Bell, Johnson, DeWitt, Wallach, and Smit.

4 of the 5 deals were deadline one; the Dodgers have consistently been in contention are Colletti isn’t afraid to trade prospects for veterans. It paid off for Manny Ramirez, but my hurt them once Josh Bell, Bryan Morris, and others begin to hit the majors.

Bottom 5 Deals
-3.1 Net WAR – 12/18/2009: Traded Juan Pierre to the White Sox for Jon Link and John Ely.
-2.6 Net WAR – 01/14/2006: Traded Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany to the Rays for Danys Baez and Lance Carter.
-2.3 Net WAR – 01/04/2006: Traded Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll to the Mets for Jae Song and Tim Hamuleck.
-1.7 Net WAR – 07/31/2010: Traded James McDonald and Andrew Lambo to the Pirates for Octavio Dotel.
-1.3 Net WAR – 07/26/2008: Traded Carlos Santana and Jon Meloan to the Indians for Casey Blake and cash.

The Dodgers are still receiving WAR for Link and Ely; their counterparts are still receiving WAR for McDonald, Lambo, Santana, and Meloan. The Santana trade could jump up to the top after another season or 2; he’s one of the elite young catcher in the game. McDonald could be a fixture in the Pirates rotation this year, so expect this one to move as well.

Free Agents
It’ll be interesting to watch this in the next 2 years, as Dodger owner Frank McCourt is having cash flow issues and isn’t investing in the team like he did the first few years of Colletti’s tenure.

Colletti’s WAR for signings is 51.2. He had been able to spend, but we’ve seen that decrease with McCourt’s divorce before the 2010 season.

Top 5 Signings
9.2 WAR – 12/09/2008: Casey Blake (Re-signed)
8.2 WAR – 02/07/2006: Takashi Saito
6.5 WAR – 12/19/2005: Rafael Furcal
6.2 WAR – 12/19/2008: Rafael Furcal (Re-signed)
4.8 WAR – 12/13/2007: Hiroki Kuroda

While the Dodgers gave up a lot for Blake, he’s been worth it since he re-signed. He’s on the down side though, and Santana would have been a welcome addition. Saito was the first big Japanese signing for the Dodgers since Hideo Nomo, and it paid off. Furcal took fewer years but more money to come to L.A. and enjoyed his stay enough to sign a second deal. Kuroda, who just signed his second deal with the club, has been an underrated starter for the Dodgers.

Bottom 5 Signings
-2.3 WAR – 12/06/2007: Andruw Jones
-1.4 WAR – 02/10/2009: Charlie Haeger
-1.1 WAR – 03/03/2010: Garret Anderson
-1.0 WAR – 02/12/2008: Mark Sweeney (Re-signed)
-0.9 WAR – 11/07/2006: Ramon Martinez (Re-signed)

That Jones signing looked bad at the time, as he was coming off a bad season. He spend 1 year in L.A. before the team cut him loose and ate a lot of money. Haeger, a knuckleballer, was forced into the rotation and killed the team; unfortunately, they didn’t have any better options. The other 3 didn’t finish the seasons they were signed.

Draft
Only 1 player drafted under Colletti has made it to the Majors: Clayton Kershaw. At least he’s a good player; it’s worse to only have 1 bad player make it.

Draft Year By Year:
2006 – 9.8 Net WAR (Kershaw)
2007 – None
2008 – None
2009 – None
2010 – None

This will continue to change as more players in the system hit the majors.

It does appear that the Dodgers have had some misses in recent years (Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller), but they have time to rebound and do something.

Grade
I can’t officially do grades until I’m finished, but Colletti has done better than I thought. I expected lower scores for him, since he’s known for his Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre signings.

For the other GMs, click here.

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One thought on “GM Scores: Ned Colletti

  1. This was a fascinating read. I, too, thought Coletti had been much less effective during his tenure in LA (and, generally speaking, the sabermetric community has not been kind to him). As an A’s fan, that Ethier trade still kills me. It hurts worse that my fellow A’s fans point to the 2006 division championship as justification for the deal, even though Bradley’s 2.7 WAR was middle of the pack on the team among everyday players that year.

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