Buffalo Bills
2010 record: 4-12
Last playoff appearance: 1999 season, (11-5), lost to Titans 22-16
General Manager: Buddy Nix (2010-present)
Head Coach: Chan Gailey (2010-present, 4-12 as Bills coach, 22-26 career record as head coach)
Offensive Coordinator: Curtis Modkins
Defensive Coordinator: George Edwards
Defensive Alignment: 3-4
2010 NFL Rankings:
OFF: 17.7 PTS (28th) 304.9 YDS (25th) 197.4 PASS (24th) 107.5 RUSH (18th)
DEF: 26.6 PTS (28th) 361.6 YDS (24th) 192.0 PASS (3rd) 169.6 RUSH (32nd)
Jeremy’s Outlook:
At this rate of rebuilding, GM Buddy Nix will have the Bills ready for a playoff run in 2022. This franchise just isn’t going anywhere this season and probably next season either. I have a feeling that Andrew Luck could be in the Bills’ future if they get the first pick for the 2012 draft. But, as far as the offense goes, Ryan Fitzpatrick was above average last year, which exceeded my expectations. Wide receiver Steve Johnson provides some offensive firepower along with Fred Jackson at running back. The offensive line isn’t going to be able to hold its own against very many defenses, either. Brad Smith could provide a spark, too.
The defense looks to be improved over last season, but only by a little bit. Marcell Dareus could really help improve the Bills’ run defense and free agent acquisition linebacker Nick Barnett is seen by many to be a net gain over Paul Posluszny, but is older. The pass defense takes a hit from losing Donte Whitner, but the Bills’ staff has got George Wilson’s back and feels that he’s able to step right in. If the Bills can (1) continue to play great against the pass, (2) Shawne Merriman can create some pressure off the edge consistently (and stay healthy), and (3) the run defense improves, the Bills could look pretty good on defense. But that’s a lot of ifs…
Prediction:
GM Buddy Nix was part of building a winner in San Diego with current Chargers’ GM A.J. Smith. The rebuilding project in Buffalo started off terribly (in hindsight) by taking a running back in the top 10 (C.J. Spiller). It’s starting to become common draft knowledge that taking running backs in the first round (especially top 10) isn’t very wise. Spiller still hasn’t beaten out Fred Jackson for the starting job. The 2011 draft shows some promise for the Bills, but it’s going to take some time for them to improve enough to challenge the big players in the AFC East. I think the Bills finish last in the East again this year. I’m going to predict only minimal improvement over last season: 5-11, last in AFC East.
Projected Starters:
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB: Fred Jackson
WR: Steve Johnson
WR: Donald Jones
WR: Roscoe Parrish
TE: camp competition: Scott Chandler/David Martin
OT: camp competition: Demetrius Bell/Ed Wang
OG: camp competition: Andy Levitre/Chad Rinehart
C: Eric Wood
OG: Craig Urbik
OT: camp competition: Ed Wang/Erik Pears
DE: Marcell Dareus
DT: Kyle Williams
DE: Dwan Edwards
OLB: Chris Kelsay
MLB: Andra Davis
MLB: Nick Barnett
OLB: Shawne Merriman
CB: Terrence McGee
S: George Wilson
S: Jairus Byrd
CB: Leodis McKelvin
K: Rian Lindell
P: Brian Moorman
Fantasy Performers:
1. Fred Jackson
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick
3. Steve Johnson
4. Rian Lindell
2011 schedule:
1 Sep 11 at Chiefs 1:00 PM Tickets
2 Sep 18 vs. Raiders 1:00 PM Tickets
3 Sep 25 vs. Patriots 1:00 PM Tickets
4 Oct 02 at Bengals 1:00 PM Tickets
5 Oct 09 vs. Eagles 1:00 PM Tickets
6 Oct 16 at Giants 1:00 PM Tickets
7 Bye
8 Oct 30 vs. Redskins 4:05 PM Tickets
9 Nov 06 vs. Jets 1:00 PM Tickets
10 Nov 13 at Cowboys 1:00 PM Tickets
11 Nov 20 at Dolphins 1:00 PM Tickets
12 Nov 27 at Jets 1:00 PM Tickets
13 Dec 04 vs. Titans 1:00 PM Tickets
14 Dec 11 at Chargers 4:15 PM Tickets
15 Dec 18 vs. Dolphins 1:00 PM Tickets
16 Dec 24 vs. Broncos 1:00 PM Tickets
17 Jan 01 at Patriots 1:00 PM Tickets
Free agent acquisitions:
Tyler Thigpen QB (Dolphins) – 3 yrs
Brad Smith WR (Jets) – 4 yrs, 15 million
Buster Davis WR (Chargers) – 1 yr
Nick Barnett LB (Packers) – 3 yrs, 12 million
Free agent losses:
Marcus Stroud DL – signed by Patriots
Aaron Maybin OLB – signed by Jets
Paul Posluszny MLB - signed by Jaguars
Donte Whitner S – signed by 49ers
Re-signed:
Mansfield Wrotto OG – 2 yrs, 2.6 million
Drayton Florence CB – 3 yrs, 15 million
George Wilson S – 3 yrs, 7.05 million
Picks in 2011 Draft: (overall grade: B): The Bills needed to improve their defense and they accomplished that with this draft. Dareus is an instant impact player, not as much as the top defensive tackle from last year (Ndamukong Suh) had, but he’ll be a huge improvement along their line. They got some linebacker help and their defensive backs, who dropped off significantly from a great 2009, are getting some new talent with Drayton Florence, Donte Whitner, and a few other DB’s potentially leaving for free agency.
(! Indicates draft pick who was interviewed, had a private workout, etc. prior to the draft according to my compiled list):
Rd 1, Pick 3 (3) Marcell Dareus DT, Alabama! – Great overall player, will help Bills stop the run better next season.
Grade: A Rated: 4
Rd 2, Pick 2 (34) Aaron Williams DB, Texas – Williams could be moved to safety. The Bills looking like they’re taking best available player, which is the right way to draft. Very good value here.
Grade: A Rated: 33
Rd 3, Pick 4 (68) Kelvin Sheppard LB, LSU! – The Bills needed another inside presence next to Paul Posluszny.
Grade: B Rated: 95
Rd 4, Pick 3 (100) Da’Norris Searcy DB, North Carolina – Donte Whitner is likely to leave for free agency.
Grade: B- Rated: 148
Rd 4, Pick 25 (122) Chris Hairston OL, Clemson – The Bills offensive line needed upgrade at tackle, so this is a welcome sight for Ryan Fitzpatrick. However, he does have work to do on technique.
Grade: C+ Rated: 170
Rd 5, Pick 2 (133) Johnny White RB, North Carolina – I missed this guy while other people have him in their top 200. Woops. He was getting big numbers before he got injured.
Grade: C+ Rated: NR
Rd 6, Pick 4 (169) Chris White LB, Mississippi State – has experience at inside and outside linebacker, but will be used inside for Buffalo.
Grade: C+ Rated: 218
Rd 7, Pick 3 (206) Justin Rogers DB, Richmond – small school sleeper.
Grade: A Rated: 200
Rd 7, Pick 42 (245) Michael Jasper DT, Bethel (TN) – transferred from Middle Tennessee State for “paying more attention to his girlfriend than his studies.” He is a massive man at 378 pounds (he was above 400 earlier in the year) and has very good athleticism for a man his size.
Grade: C Rated: NR
2010 Stat Leaders
Ryan Fitzpatrick 255-441 57.8% 3000 YDS 6.8 YPA 23 TD 15 INT 81.8 RTG
Fred Jackson 222 ATT 927 YDS 4.2 YPA 5 TD
Steve Johnson 82 REC 1073 YDS 13.1 YPC 10 TD
Rian Lindell 16-21 76%
Paul Posloszny 151 TCK
Kyle Williams 5.5 SCK
Drayton Florence 3 INT
Out of Season Storylines
Dave Wannstedt added as Assistant Head Coach/Linebackers Coach
Shawne Merriman out to resurrect career