Friday night, the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees shocked the baseball community by making a trade no one saw coming – the Mariners traded right-handers Michael Pineda and Jose Campos to the Yankees for catcher Jesus Montero and right-hander Hector Noesi.

The deal was shocking as the most experienced players had a year of MLB service and all of the players are full of potential.

Pineda is coming off an impressive rookies season. Coming into the year, he was a consensus top 50 prospect. He lived up to expectations by having a 3.74 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 3.15 K/BB ratios. The soon to be 23-year-old was an All Star and finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting.

Campos was one of the upper level prospects in the Mariners system; I had him ranked 5th at the time of the trade and the 74th best prospect in baseball. Campos, 19, pitched well in Lo A this past season; he had a 2.32 ERA and 6.54 K/BB ratio. He throws hard, but needs to work on his secondary stuff. He could top out as a #2 starter and his floor is a middle reliever; his best case scenario is #3-4 starter. He’ll be #5 in the Yankees system when I release updated rankings.

Montero, 22, can hit the cover off the ball; his big question mark is where he’ll play. The Yankees and Mariners are convinced he’ll stick behind the plated, but scouts believe he’ll end up at 1B or DH. In his brief Major League call up (SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT), he hit .328/.406/.590 with 4 HR and 12 RBI in 61 at bats. He’s currently one of the top 10 prospects in baseball and should start the season with the Mariners.

Noesi could be the key to the deal, as he will move to a pitcher friendly environment in Seattle. In 30 appearances last season, Noesi had a 4.47 ERA and 7.2 K/9 and 2.05 K/BB ratios. The 25-year-old will have a shot to make the Mariners’ rotation this spring. At his best, he’ll be a #3-4 starter/innings eater type.

It’s hard to determine a winner at this time on the deal. Pineda could have a sophomore slump, and the other young guys might not develop at the Major League Level. Right now it’s a wash, with maybe a slight edge towards the Yankees.