The divisional playoffs delivered as promised last weekend, giving us a thrilling Saints-49ers game, a record-setting Patriots performance, a dry but competitive Ravens win and a shocking upset by the Giants.  Can the conference championships possibly measure up?

That’s the first of many questions about these two games.  Can the poor Patriots defense slow down the Ravens offense?  Just how good is Alex Smith?  Does Joe Flacco have what it takes to get a Super Bowl berth?  Will the Giants turn it over against the 9ers the way New Orleans did?  What is our most compelling Super Bowl matchup?

Let’s explore that final point.  Our four potential Super Bowl match-ups are:

1) Ravens-Giants:  This would give us the NFL’s current most maligned quarterback against the NFL’s previously most maligned quarterback.  It would be Baltimore’s feature back (Ray Rice) against one of the NFL’s more successful running back committee (Jacobs and Bradshaw).  It would be a rematch of Super Bowl XXXV.

2) Ravens-49ers:  The Harbaugh Bowl!!!  That alone makes this a fun matchup that would lead to endless scrutiny of the Harbaugh brothers, including their personal history and any competitions they engaged in as children.  If the Harbaugh analysis wasn’t so sickening, this would be my favorite possible matchup.  Also, we’d have Smith and Flacco each going for a redeeming ring, the defensive pairing of Patrick Willis and Ray Lewis and other storylines.  But the Harbaughs trump all.  Hopefully, it would end in a coach fight.

3) Patriots-49ers:  I like the matchup of the 9ers’ top defense vs the Patriots’ top offense, the Harbaugh vs Belichick coaching battle would be excellent and I think the Patriots would gleefully attempt to crush Alex Smith.  By the way, this would probably be a fantastic game.

4) Patriots-Giants:  The best matchup on paper.  With the lingering memory of Super Bowl XLII and the more recent Giants upset in November, these two teams have a powerful history that would no doubt lead to an explosive matchup.  I’d be curious to see if the Giants pass rush can once again fluster Brady, if New England’s secondary can hope to manage Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.

So with that settled, on to the games:

2) Baltimore Ravens vs 1) New England Patriots

This key to this matchup seems to be Joe Flacco, who may be the most hated quarterback in the NFL.  I’m not sure what he did to deserve it.  I will concede that he didn’t play an excellent game last weekend, but after starting with a poor 5/16 first half, he finished 9 for 11 in the second half.  He made multiple important throws, including two terrific touchdown passes.  Had it not been for the Cam Cameron’s pathetic goal line play calling at the end of a probable touchdown drive, (four straight runs that were stuffed), Flacco would have led a third touchdown drive, the Ravens would have won comfortably and he might have been treated better.

The big question is, after playing relatively well against a killer Houston defense–after all, he did have a 97.0 passer rating–will Flacco deliver a good performance against a lousy New England defense?  Even on the road, I think that he will.  The biggest issue with Baltimore’s passing attack is that they sometimes struggle to protect Flacco and their receivers have trouble getting open against good secondaries.  New England has neither the pass rush to attack Flacco, nor the secondary to limit Baltimore’s receivers.  There’s no reason for Flacco not to succeed.  Additionally, I think Ray Rice will play well against a middling Patriots rush defense–they allow a 17th ranked 117 yards per game.

On the other side, who seriously expects even Tom Brady to slice up Baltimore’s defense?  They have the NFL’s best sack rate, allowed only 196 passing yards per game and force a high number of turnovers.  New England obviously won’t be able to run against Baltimore’s second ranked rush defense, so I find it hard to believe the Patriots will be able to consistently move the ball against Baltimore.

Really, it comes down to whether Joe Flacco will have more success against New England’s defense then Brady has against Baltimore’s defense.  Given that Baltimore’s defense is better than New England’s in every way, I doubt even Brady is so much better than Flacco that it will eliminate that advantage.  There will be a good amount of scoring, but I think ultimately Baltimore will win the turnover battle and Flacco will make enough plays to win the game.  It’ll be a tight contest.

The Pick:  Baltimore 27, New England 23

4) New York Giants vs 2) San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers won a significantly emotional game over New Orleans last Saturday.  How emotional?  Vernon Davis was sobbing after his shocking game winning touchdown.  By contrast, the Giants coldly dispatched the significantly favored Packers by seventeen, piling on points, overwhelming Green Bay’s receivers and slashing up the Pack’s passing defense.  San Francisco is the Hollywood team with heavy emotional energy, whereas the Giants operate more like assassins who react to each win only by looking forward to the next opponent.  They have won five of six and show no signs of slowing down.

I’m uneasy about the 49ers offense.  Against a middle of the pack Saints defense, they frequently struggled to move the ball and nearly gave away the game despite holding a +4 turnover differential.  If you ignore the 17 points they scored off turnovers in the first quarters and remove their two touchdowns in the final two minutes of the game, the 49ers managed just six points in 43 minutes of game time.  Against a Giants defense that gets tons of pressure and is playing better than ever, I don’t think it’s safe to expect that San Francisco will get much more than 20 points.

The Giants may have better luck against the 49ers, but I doubt it will be much better.  Though they surrendered over 30 points last Saturday, the 49ers defense played an outstanding game.  They limited Drew Brees to a human performance, forced five impressive turnovers and set their offense up for success.  Despite Smith’s heroics, it was undoubtedly the defense that won the game.  They are physical, but disciplined–on Saturday, they landed several powerful, clean hits.  I enjoy watching San Francisco play defense as much as I enjoy watching most offenses play.

Eli Manning has established himself as a great quarterback this season and is on an excellent run right now.  I expect that he’ll have trouble with San Francisco’s defense but will ultimately do enough to win this game.  Cruz, Nicks and Mario Manningham are playing terrifically, and I think they’ll give San Francisco’s secondary a heavy test.  I say the Giants will win this one in a squeaker, perhaps even on a last-minute drive.

The Pick:  Giants 23, 49ers 20

As it stands now, I’m 6-2 for the postseason.  We’ll see how everything turns out this weekend.