I’m working on case by case predictions for players. Number one on my list was Albert Pujols. As a Cardinal fan, I wanted to see what he could do in Los Angeles and what he could have done if he stayed in St. Louis.
Just to look at my projections, here was what I had him at for 2011 before the season started.
| Year | Age | G | R | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 Projected | 31 | 136 | 91 | 151 | 27 | 95 | .309 | .408 | .548 |
| 2011 Actual | 31 | 147 | 105 | 173 | 37 | 99 | .299 | .366 | .541 |
| Difference | – | -11 | -14 | -22 | -10 | -4 | .010 | .042 | .007 |
| Percentage | – | -7% | -13% | -13% | -27% | -4% | 3% | 11% | 1% |
As you can see, I wasn’t all that far off. Part of me feels like him coming back so quickly from his injury last year is the reason some of these are off (I can’t back that up, it’s just my gut feeling).
Part of where my projection came from was his 3-year average of his stats. If you look at the last 3 years, you’ll see decline in his Runs, Hits, Doubles, Home Runs, RBIs, Stolen Bases, Walks, Slugging and Total Bases since 2009. He’s also seen a decrease in Average, On Base Percentage, OPS, and OPS+ since 2008 and an increase in Gounding Into Double Plays since 2008. Those aren’t the greatest trends for a player on the wrong side of 30.
So, for 2012 I have the following for Pujols as an Angel:
| Year | Age | G | R | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 Projected | 32 | 134 | 86 | 141 | 29 | 89 | .294 | .392 | .551 |
They are even more pessimistic than last year. I could see that, as he’s had a problem staying healthy; he’s one bad move away from blowing out his elbow. The benefit to the Angels is the fact that he’s a quick healer.
What about if Albert would have stayed in St. Louis:
| Year | Age | G | R | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 Projected | 32 | 134 | 86 | 140 | 26 | 90 | .291 | .394 | .550 |
Not a huge change, but Busch Stadium tends to suppress power a little more than Anaheim.
I think he’ll have a better season than what my projections show. He’s shown that he’s constantly been able to perform, even while declining. I’m not confident he’ll be at this level in 10 years, but he’ll be worth it in the short term.