Here is my second mock draft for the season; there are a few things that have changed. First off, I added a third round. Secondly, I have more college players; after seeing the trends of last year, more college players were taken after the first round due to signability and bonus demands. You still had teams like the Blue Jays that went high profile high schoolers in the second and third rounds, then took college seniors for the rest of the round through 10.
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2013 MLB Draft Bonus Pool
In getting ready for the MLB Draft, the most important thing to look at is the Bonus Pool. Below is the pool for all 30 teams and the amount of picks they have in the first 10 rounds.
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10:47: Best available for Friday:
10:44: Big reach by Cowboys. What was Jerry thinking?
The MLB Draft is coming up in June, so Mock Draft season is starting up. Here is my first attempt. If I learned anything from last year, it’s not to know what will happen. We’ll probably see more teams take guys that will sign for over slot in the first round, then more below slot guys for the next 9 rounds (a la the Astros and Cardinals).
There is a fairly big change this year as far as picks go. Picks tied to free agent compensation changed. If a player is offered a qualifying deal by their former team, the player will cost the new team a draft pick (unless they are one of the first 15 picks) and gain the former team a compensation pick. So, when the Brewers signed Kyle Lohse, they lost pick 17 and the Cardinals gained pick 28.
Also, there is the additional competitive balance rounds after the first and second rounds; these picks are given to the lower market teams in a lottery and are tradable. I don’t understand why a team would potentially trade these picks, as they are tied the draft bonus pool for each team. So the Pirates draft bonus pool got lowered when they acquired Gaby Sanchez from the Marlins.
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As mentioned in previous articles, MLB teams have a limited amount they have been allotted to spend on the draft this year. The amount is proportioned to the placement and amount of picks they have based off the recommended slotting system. The draft pool was for picks in the first through ten rounds; any pick after the 10th round was allowed a recommended slot value of $100k and anything over that counted against the draft pool (the Royals signed pitcher Zeb Sneed for $110k; $10k went against the draft pool).
If a team exceeds their draft pool by 5%, they face a 75% tax on the overage. After 5%, they face the tax plus loss of draft picks. The table below shows what each team spent according to Baseball America, their available draft pool (adjusted for un-signed picks), their over/under, the bonus pool plus 5% for teams that exceeded their pool, the amount they were over/under after the 5%, and the amount they will be taxed for exceeding the pool.
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4 MLB teams will receive compensation picks for the 2013 draft, due to the inability to sign picks from the 2012 draft.
Unsigned players in the first 3 rounds that are not compensation picks from not signing picks from the previous year will land the drafting team picks in 2013. This year, that means the Pirates (Mark Appel), Mets (Teddy Stankiewicz), Phillies (Alec Rash), and Athletics (Kyle Twomey) will all gain picks.
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I’ve had a request to look at the impact of not signing a player in the first 10 rounds will impact a team and it’s bonus pool.
The deadline to sign draftees is Friday, and there are currently 21 players that haven’t signed yet (pick 210 Kurt Heyer signed with the Cardinals this morning). This includes 6 players in the first round that are in line for large bonuses.
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Yesterday, we looked at WAR for the first 30 picks; today, I’ve broken it down by level of education – high school (HS), junior/community college (JC), and college (C).
We always hear there is less risk drafting college players; is this true?
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One common statement I heard during the MLB Draft was “Outside of the first 8 picks, the quality drops off.” I was curious if that was a general theory for this draft, or if this was common every year.
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I’ve set up a spreadsheet to track team signings and use of the bonus pool. With each confirmed signing, I’ll update the amount and the impact to the bonus pools.
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