There’s no excuse to be made.  You could talk about Chris Bosh’s injury being a factor, but that doesn’t change the fact that LeBron played one of his worst games of the year against Indiana last night.

22 points, 22 shots, 7 rebounds and general disinterest.  None of that stat line is appropriate for a three time MVP in the playoffs.  LeBron needs to win a championship now to silence his critics and save his own reputation.

Dwyane Wade should be under the magnifying glass as well.  I don’t care if he won a ring in 2006, it doesn’t excuse him to me.  His no-shows in games five and six of last year’s finals and his generally poor performance in the postseason so far are worthy of ample criticism.  In particular, if Miami does lose to Indy in this series, Wade’s atrocious game three would mark the low point of his playoff career.

The significance of this column is largely hinged on the assumption that Miami will lose to Indy.  Considering that a team that takes a 2-1 series lead wins the series 77% of the time and Miami appears to be at sabotaging itself, it’s not a reasonable projection.  If Miami rebounds from this to win the series, then game 3 may be viewed as a wakeup call.  But if Miami loses…

The number one reaction will be confusion.  The idea of Miami–who were, just a reminder, title contenders for the entire season–losing to a Pacers nucleus with five playoff wins since 2010 was hardly acknowledged as a possibility.  The finals failure from last year was equally surprising, as was LeBron’s collapse at the hands of Boston in 2010.  Three consecutive shocking upsets for one player?  I can’t think of the last time that’s happened.

At the center of the shock is a simple but revealing question:  how can the best player in basketball, a man with seemingly limitless ability, repeatedly fail in the clutch?  The answer is hard to find.

The immediate answer is that LeBron is a choker who doesn’t have it in him.  I hate to accept this explanation.  It’s not as if Lebron has a part of his brain that blocks him from performing under pressure (we think).  There’s got to be a reason.

It’s possible that all of the criticism LeBron faces from the media is damaging to him.  If you watch him closely late in close games, it seems as if every playoff failure is visible on his face.  His missed free throws in game two played out like a self-fulfilling prophecy–it seemed like he was more afraid he would miss them than confident he would make them, which sabotaged his composure and led to the clanked freebies.

Confidence is everything in late game situations.  Kevin Durant believes he’s the guy to take the last shot–when he makes it, it’s expected, when he misses it, it’s stunning.  LeBron clearly always wonders whether he should be taking the last shot, and if his shots don’t have conviction, they won’t go in.  That lack of confidence is consistent in all of LeBron’s playoff shortcomings.

Part of that lack of confidence does come from the media hammering him for every single late game mistake (and I do mean every mistake;  if LeBron misses two free throws in a three point win in February, you can bet “What’s Wrong with LeBron?” will be stamped on the Sportscenter lineup).  But I think  large part of Lebron’s crisis of confidence comes from his relationship with Dwyane Wade.

There aren’t enough words to adequately analyze LeBron and Wade’s partnership.  They’re apparently best friends, but also quiet rivals, and their on-court relationship ranges from spectacular to questionable by the week.  Other than some highlight reel alley oops, they haven’t had an outstanding season as far as chemistry is concerned, because LeBron seems to play just as well without Wade but Wade doesn’t exactly rely on LeBron either.  They can’t find any consistent rhythm in a halfcourt offense, something that has been devastating against a young Pacers team can somewhat contain Miami’s fastbreak.

Also, LeBron and Wade act like best friends, but I think there must be some competitive animosity between them.  The partnership was rocky from the start, as the two stars attempted to be equals in a sports culture that demands that one of them be the team’s number one guy/alpha male.  And really, they never figured out that dynamic.  I don’t doubt it bothers Wade to some extent that LeBron is universally recognized as the superior player.  I’m sure it’s difficult for LeBron to shoulder the fact that he’s viewed as the choker while Wade is the hero:  even when they both fail, as they did in the finals last year, LeBron’s struggle always overshadows Wade’s.  This is in part due to the fact that LeBron is better, and in part due to Wade’s having a title already.

And though I can only speculate, I think all of Miami’s problems stem from those two reconcilable but unaddressed issues.  Wade, consistently reminded that he’s the second best guy on his team, gets frustrated when LeBron doesn’t assert himself late in games, an issue that boiled over in last year’s finals.  If Wade doesn’t get to be recognized as the best player, he at least wants LeBron to step up late.  Ultimately, Wade’s frustration deepens LeBron’s confidence crisis:  I honestly think he wonders whether Wade–the NBA champion–should be taking the final shots instead of him.  The result is a vicious cycle that causes Wade to get more angry and LeBron to get more passive, a dynamic that devastates Miami’s team, as we clearly saw last night.

I honestly think the definitive moment of LeBron and Wade’s partnership can be found in this clip from game three of last year’s finals.  Wade tries to push LeBron to play more effectively and LeBron just brushed him off, unable to reconcile Wade his friend with Wade his hyper-competitive teammate.  Wade wants LeBron to play like the league’s best player, but LeBron can’t escape the notion that Wade is a better closer and a winner.  That dynamic makes it impossible for both players to reach their best abilities.

LeBron and Wade’s flawed partnership is the root of Miami’s problems, not Bosh’s injury.  And until they figure out how to play together for all 48 minutes, they can’t win a ring.  Somebody has to be the best, but the two can’t decide who it is.  And if they don’t, Indy may hit the fast track to the finals.

ERP=(2x (Total Bases + Walks + Hit by Pitch) + Hits + Steals – (.605x (At Bats + Caught Stealing + Ground into Double Plays – Hits))) x .16

The actual numbers in the formula represent the change that each event (i.e. hit, walk, home run, etc) will result in a run scored.

I set up a spreadsheet with every player, each game they played, and set it up to compile the stats. The top 5 in ERP is as follows:

I can’t say I’m all that surprised, other than the fact that Furcal is #2 on the list. If you’d have asked me March 31st, I’d have gone Holliday, Berkman, Beltran, Molina, Freese.

Someone that’s going to creep there way on the list is Allen Craig. In 14 games, he’s got an ERP of 14.12, or 1.01 ERP per game. Think of it this way:
Beltran – 30.58 in 35 games is 0.87
Furcal – 29.49 in 36 games is 0.82
Holliday – 22.82 in 37 games is 0.62
Freese – 21.84 in 35 games is 0.62
Molina – 20.66 in 33 games is 0.63
Berkman – 6.86 in 10 games is 0.68

Craig is the only player above 1 ERP. You can chalk it up to his hot start and not expect him to continue at this pace. I expect he’ll regress to the current Freese/Holliday level. That is still a respectable level.

Just for record, the lowest non-pitching hitter are Tony Cruz (0.21), Erik Komatsu (1.11), and Shane Robinson (5.76). Robinson was solid in April (7.02), but has fallen on hard time in May (-1.26).

The best single game performance belongs to Beltran on May 11; he went 5 for 6 with 2 home runs, good for 5.02 ERP.

Guess who’s second? Tyler Greene and his 3 for 4, 2 home run game on May 6th; he produced 4.16 runs that day.

Which brings up another question – which second baseman is having the better season?

Greene has an ERP of 10.36 in 26 games. Dan Descalso has an ERP of 7.61 in 29 games. Both players are neck and neck in at bats (Green 68 and Descalso 64). Green has hte advantage from his 4 stolen bases and 3 homers (vs Descalso with 0 and 1 respectively). Add in Skip, and he’s at 7.40 in 19 games.

At this point Greene has the highest ERP/G at 0.40; Descalso is at 0.26 and Skip is at 0.39.

Graduates of elementary schools, middle schools, high schools, college, or any other type of graduation are welcome to walk in a pre-game parade around the field sporting their cap and/or gown. The parade will begin at 12:10 p.m. culminating with a 1:15 p.m. game in which students and former students may stay and watch the St. Louis Cardinals take on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

“We are excited to offer this new event honoring recent graduates for their achievement,” said Joe Strohm, Vice President of Ticket Sales. “This is a wonderful opportunity for the Cardinals to congratulate each graduate as we join them in celebrating this important academic milestone.”

Tickets for the day are on sale now for $15 and include Pavilion level seating as well as a voucher for a free hot dog and soda. All ticketed fans ages 15 and under will also receive a Yadier Molina Rawlings Bat.

To purchase tickets, visit cardinals.com/graduation, or groups of 25 or more can call 314-345-9500. Tickets will be available through July 1. Help celebrate your graduate’s special day by reserving a spot today.

–STL–

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Beane is known for drafting college players and for his tirade in Moneyball for his team taking Jeremy Bonderman in the 2001 draft. The belief is that college players are closer to making the majors due to their more advanced level of competition and that they present less risk than high schoolers.

Here’s a year by year look at the players Beane took as a GM (starting with his first draft as GM in 1998)…

Note: The numbers might be slightly off for 1998-2001, as I haven’t found a reliable source for signing information from these years; Baseball America has great information for 2002 on.

1998
43 picks
- 14 High School
- 4 Junior/Community College
- 25 College

38 signed (88%)
- 13 HS
- 2 JC
- 23 C

7 MLB – 18% of signed draftees

93% of the HS players they drafted signed. Keep an eye on this, as it’ll drop significantly over the years.

This draft gets high points for Mark Mulder and Eric Byrnes. Mulder not only pitched well, but also brought the team many players through trade. Byrnes was solid as a player here. Other major leaguers included Gerald Laird (HS), Jason Hart, Jon Adkins, Tyler Yates, and Mike Cervenak.

1999
45 picks
- 11 HS
- 6 JC
- 28 C

41 signed (91%)
- 9 HS
- 5 JC
- 27 C

4 MLB – 10% of signed draftees

82% of the HS players they drafted signed.

While this draft only yielded 4 major leaguers, it did bring the team its third ace – Barry Zito. He was great in Oakland and didn’t drain them for a large contract. This draft also included Ryan Ludwick, Mario Ramos, and Justin Lehr.

2000
45 picks
- 9 HS
- 6 JC
- 30 C

32 signed (71%)
- 6 HS
- 5 JC
- 21 C

5 MLB – 16% of signed draftees

67% of the HS players they drafted signed

Without a first round pick, the team took Freddie Bynum (JC) to start their draft. The high point was snagging Rich Harden in the 17th round. They also draft Marc Gwyn, Marshall McDougall, and Ron Flores this year.

2001
41 picks
- 10 HS
- 4 JC
- 27 C

36 signed (88%)
- 8 HS
- 3 JC
- 25 C

8 MLB – 22% of signed draftees

80% of the HS players they drafted signed; it’ll never be this high again.

The team had 3 first rounders and selected Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Bonderman (HS), and John Rheinecker. Crosby was a regular for a while. Bonderman never pitched for the team; he was trade a year after being drafted and had a decent career in Detroit. Rheinecker saw some time in the majors, but was out of baseball by 2008. The team also drafted Neal Cotts, Marcus McBeth, Dan Johnson, Mike Wood, and Chris Mabeus.

2002
52 picks
- 14 HS
- 5 JC
- 33 C

33 signed (63%)
- 3 HS
- 2 JC
- 28 C

8 MLB – 63% of signed draftees

21% of the HS players they drafted signed

The famous “Moneyball draft”; yes, the had 7 first round picks, but 4 made it to the majors (Nick Swisher, Joe Blanton, Jeremy Brown, and Mark Teahen). It’s a solid draft, even if 3 picks didn’t pan out. They also had major leaguers in Bill Murphy, John Baker, Jared Burton, and Shane Komine.

2003
42 picks
- 9 HS
- 5 JC
- 25 C

23 signed (55%)
- 0
- 1
- 22

3 MLB – 13% of the signed draftees

0% of the HS players they drafted signed

Andre Ethier was the premier player drafted here, but it was after they picked Brad Sullivan, Brian Snyder, and Omar Quintanilla; Sullivan and Snyder never made it to the majors. Brian Horwitz was the other player to make the majors from this draft.

2004
44 picks
- 5 HS
- 4 JC
- 35 C

32 signed (73%)
- 2 HS
- 1 JC
- 29 C

11 MLB – 34% of the signed draftees

40% of the HS players they drafted signed

This could be the strongest of Beane’s drafts. They landed Huston Street, Kurt Suzuki, and Dallas Braden here. All have been regulars for the team, with Street eventually being traded for Matt Holliday. They had 4 first rounders and selected Landon Powell, Richie Robnett, Danny Putnam, and Street; only Robnett has not been in the majors. Other Major Leaguers include Jason Windsor, Ryan Webb (HS), Kevin Melillo, Tom Everidge, Connor Robertson, and Jeff Gray.

2005
40 picks
- 11 HS
- 2 JC
- 27 C

31 signed (78%)
- 7 HS
- 0 JC
- 24 C

7 MLB – 23% of the signed draftees

64% of the HS players they drafted signed

This is another solid class, but they didn’t have anyone in the range of Street and Suzuki here. Current SS Cliff Pennington is probably the biggest name. They also drafted Travis Buck, Vin Mazzaro (HS), Justin Sellers (HS), Jeff Baisley, Anthony Recker, and Brad Kilby in this draft.

2006
40 picks
- 13 HS
- 6 JC
- 21 C

27 signed (68%)
- 4 HS
- 4 JC
- 19 C

2 MLB – 7% of the signed draftees

31% of the HS players they drafted signed

Things drop off here, as they only have had 2 successful players – Trevor Cahill (HS) and Andrew Bailey. Looking at the list of players drafted, I don’t see anyone else who’s probably going to be called up here. There are a handful of guys that have made it to Triple A; Jermaine Mitchell is probably the best.

2007
53 picks
- 12 HS
- 3 JC
- 38 C

32 signed (60%)
- 1 HS
- 1 JC
- 30 C

3 MLB – 9% of the signed draftees

8% of the HS players they drafted signed

This draft has seen all of 3 at bats and 69 innings in the Majors. Corey Brown, Sam Demel, and Andrew Carignan are the guys to make it to the Majors. They have a few guys that could still make it (Sean Doolittle, Josh Horton), but this one is most likely another lost cause.

2008
50 picks
- 15 HS
- 8 JC
- 27 C

27 signed (54%)
- 2 HS
- 6 JC
- 19 C

2 MLB – 7% of the signed draftees

13% of the HS players they drafted signed

Jemile Weeks and Tyson Ross are the 2 major leaguers, but there are more that could make their way up in the future.

2009
49 picks
- 11 HS
- 2 JC
- 36 C

39 signed (59%)
- 4 HS
- 2 JC
- 23 C

0 MLB – 0% of the signed draftees

36% of the HS players they drafted signed

Now we hit the territory where players are still in the minors, like first round pick Grant Green, Max Stassi, and Ian Krol.

2010
50 picks
- 15 HS
- 4 JC
- 31 C

33 signed (66%)
- 11 HS
- 2 JC
- 20 C

0 MLB – 0% of the signed draftees

73% of the HS players they drafted signed

This appears to be another strong draft, even without anyone in the Majors yet.

2011
49 picks
- 15 HS
- 3 JC
- 31 C

29 signed (59%)
- 1 HS
- 1 JC
- 27 C

0 MLB – 0% of the signed draftees

7% of the HS players they drafted signed

Like 2010, it appears to be another strong draft. We probably won’t see anyone for at least another year though.

Conclusion
The A’s have been successful at getting Major League talent out of the draft; they’ve had 60 players make it that far.

The real trend is with the demographics they draft. 76% of the signed players are from college. Not surprising. They have also signed 81% of the college players they drafted.

What is surprising is they have only signed 43% of the small amount of high school players they have drafted (71 of 164).

I think this is their way of doing 2 things. First off, it limits what they spend. They can typically sign college players cheaper, as they don’t have to buy them out of a scholarship. As mentioned before, there is also less risk with college players; this is very important for a team like Oakland that has to watch every cent they spend. Secondly, it keeps some of these players away from the competition for as many as 4 years. Some of these kids go to college and get better, which costs the competition more money.

It’s really just a conspiracy theory, but it makes sense in a sort of way.

As far as the first round goes, they have taken 1 high schooler (Bonderman) out of 28 picks. 19 of them have made the majors, but that includes the last 3 first rounders (Green, Choice, and Sonny Gray; Green is at Triple A and Choice and Gray are Double A).

They have a solid track record of early college players, and I expect them to continue with that. I believe they will focus on an infielder. My first choice for them is Clemson 3B Richie Shaffer. He’s a solid bat and should move fast; as we’ve seen, the A’s don’t have much in the system at third. I could see Shaffer being gone (possibly to the Rockies), so I have a few other options.

Stephen Piscotty could also be in play. He’s another third baseman and could move fast as well. He’s a Stanford product, so the baseball pedigree is there.

The final option could be Deven Marrero. He’s a slick fielding shortstop but there are questions about the bat. Scouts believe he’s a major leaguer for defense alone. He could be a stretch at 11 if the bat is that questionable.

Check back later this week for my updated Mock Draft.

There are many special moments in baseball.  Every time you watch a game, there is an opportunity to see something you have never seen before.  For example, when Hamilton hit his home runs, they were all two-run home runs.  That may be rare.  However, I believe that this is the first time in the history of Major League Baseball that the same runner was on base for each of the four home runs (Elvis Andrus).  That is why baseball is amazing; you always have the chance to see history.

So, in baseball, what is historic?  To me, history is a rare feat.  According to baseball-reference.com, there have been over 200,000 games played, over 13 million at-bats, over 265,000 home runs, over 3 million inning pitched and almost 2 million strikeouts since 1876.  There have been over 17,000 players to play in the Major Leagues, so anything that has happened under 500 times would be rare and historic, I believe.  So what are these feats that I consider historic.

Let’s start with “hitting for the cycle”.  A cycle is hitting a single, double, triple and home run all in the same game.  To date, there have 293 cycles hit in baseball history.  The first player to do so was Curry Foley of the Buffalo Bisons on May 25, 1882 and the latest was Scott Hairston on April 27^th of this season.  The San Diego Padres and the Miami Marlins have never had a cycle hot for their organizations.  Bob Meusel, Babe Herman and John Reilly share the record with three career cycles.  Twenty-four cycles have included an inside-the-park home run and nine include a grand slam.

A “no-hitter” is the next rare feat.  First, let me congratulate the New York Mets for reaching 8,000 games as a franchise without a no-hitter.  TO date there have been 274 no-hitters thrown.  The first was by George Bradley for the St. Louis Brown Stockings on July 15, 1876 (a no-hitter by Joe Borden of the Philadelphia White Stockings on July 28, 1975 has been recorded but not recognized by Major League Baseball).  Jered Weaver threw the latest no-hitter on May 2^nd of this season.  Since 1991, it had been decided that a game must be played for nine innings for a no-hitter to be declared.  Nolan Ryan has the most career no-hitters with seven.  Jason Varitek holds the record by catching four no-hitters and five pitchers have thrown two no-hitters in a season and of course, everyone knows that Johnny Vander Meer threw consecutive no-hitters.  Nolan Ryan had 24 no-hitters broken up in the 7^th inning or later, Randy Johnson had eleven and Don Sutton had eight.

Occurring 269 times is the feat of a player hitting a home run from both sides of the plate in a game.  Obviously, a switch-hitter can only perform this.  The first time it was done was by Wally Schang of the Philadelphia Athletics on September 8, 1916 and was most recently done by Nick Swisher on April 28 of this season.  Mark Teixeira has the record with reaching the seats from both sides of the plate thirteen times in his career.  It has been done four times in post-season games, twice by Bernie Williams.  Williams and teammate Jorge Posada each did this feat on April 23, 2000 the only time switch-hitting teammates did it during the same game.  Carlos Baerga and Mark Bellhorn each did this during the same inning, the only to players to ever do so.

Can you believe that 93 players have gotten six hits in a nine-inning game?  Davy Force of the Philadelphia Athletics was the first to do it on June 27, 1876 and Adrian Gonzalez most recently did it on August 11, 2009.   There have been 40 other instances where a player got six hits in an extra-inning game.  There are five players who have accomplished this feat twice.  Three players hit for the cycle while getting their six hits.  Cal McVey did it twice in four days and Shawn Green hit four home runs on the way to his six hits.  Twice has the six hits in nine innings been topped when Wilbert Robinson (six singles and a double on June 10, 1892) and Rennie Stennett (four singles, two doubles and a triple on September 16, 1975) went seven for seven in a nine-inning game.

A pitcher has struck out four batters in an inning 57 times.  Obviously, for this feat to occur, there would be a passed ball or wild pitch during the inning.  Since 2000, the feat has been accomplished twenty times and also occurred sixteen times during the 1990s.  Ed Crane of the New York Gothams was the first to accomplish this feat on October 4, 1888 in the 5^th inning.  It happened last on September 17, 2011 by Yovani Gallardo of the Milwaukee Brewers also in the 5^th inning.  Chuck Finley is the only pitcher to do this three times and nineteen pitchers have struck out four batters in a row within the inning.  During the 1908 World Series, Orval Overall struck out four batters while pitching for the Chicago Cubs.

There have been 27 walk-off grand slams hit when the home team was trailing by three runs.  To make it even more dramatic, the walk-off grand slam while trailing by three runs has happened fourteen times with two outs.  Roger Connor of the Troy Trojans was the first to do this on September 9, 1881 but Del Crandall on September 11, 1955 was the first to do it with two outs.  Ryan Roberts was the last to accomplish this feat on September 27, 2011 and it happened with two outs.  No one has done it twice.

Also occurring 27 times is a Major Leaguer hitting a home run on the first pitch in his first at-bat.  Walter Mueller did it the first time on May 7, 1922 for the Pittsburgh Pirates and the last time it was accomplished by Brett Pill of the San Francisco Giants on September 6, 2011.  Twice the first pitch home run was a grand slam; Kevin Kouzmanoff on September 2, 2006 and Daniel Nava on June 12, 2010.

There have been twenty-one perfect games in Major League Baseball.  Only twenty-one times has there been 27 up and 27 down.  This happened twice before 1900, the first was Lee Richmond of the Worcester Ruby Legs on June 12, 1880.  He beat the Cleveland Blues 1-0 at the Worcester Agricultural Fairgrounds.  The latest was Philip Humber, who beat the Seattle Mariners 4-0 on April 21, 2012 at Safeco Field.  There have been two instances where a pitcher was perfect through nine innings but game up base runners in extra innings, but do not get credited with a perfect game.

We have already established that there have been sixteen occurrences where a player has hit four homeruns in a game.  Josh Hamilton hit his four home runs in a game on May 8^th.  The first player to do so was Bobby Lowe back on May 30, 1894.  Six players did it in four consecutive at-bats but only thirteen players did so in a nine-inning game.

There have been fifteen unassisted triple plays in Major League Baseball history.  The first time was by Bill Wambsganss of the Cleveland Indians.  The second baseman performed this feat on October 10, 1920 in the 5^th inning of Game 5 of the World Series.  He caught a line drive, tagged second to get the second out and then tagged a runner to achieve the unassisted triple play.  The last player to do this was Eric Bruntlett of the Philadelphia Phillies who got three outs in the same way that Wambsganss did on August 23, 2009 against the New York Mets.  Bruntlett did this in the 9^th inning, ending the game.  Only one other time did an unassisted triple play end the game and that was on May 31, 1927 by Johnny Neun who ended a game against the Cleveland Indians.

There have been fourteen times in which a player has hot for a “natural cycle”.  A natural cycle is where a player hits a single, double, triple and home run in that order.  Bill Collins performed this feat first in October 6, 1910 and the last player to do so was Gary Mathews, Jr. who did so on September 13, 2006.

The number thirteen brings us to the number of players that have hit two grand slams in one game.  Tony Lazzeri was the first to do so in the 2^nd inning and 5^th inning on May 24, 1936.   The player to hit two grand slams in one game was Josh Willingham who hit grand slams in the 5^th and 6^th inning on July 27, 2009.  Fernando Tatis is the only player in Major League Baseball history to hit two grand slams in one inning, both coming off of Chan Ho Park in the 3^rd inning on April 23, 1999.  Bill Mueller is the only player to hit two grand slams in a game, one from each side of the plate and he did that in the 7^th and 8^th innings on July 29, 2003.

Want to know what has happened twelve times in history?  A batter has driven in ten runs in a game twelve times in history.   Wilbert Robinson achieved this back on June 10, 1892 (he drove in eleven) and the most recent time was on August 21, 2007 when Garret Anderson drove in ten runs for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  Jim Bottomley and Mark Whiten each drove in twelve runs in a game and Tony Lazzeri and Phil Weintraub joined Robinson by driving in eleven.

We will go all the way down to five.  There have been five twenty-strikeout games in history.  Three times it occurred in nine innings and twice it occurred in extra innings.  Tom Cheney struck out twenty-one members of the Baltimore Orioles in ten innings on September 12, 1962 and Randy Johnson struck out twenty Cincinnati Reds in nine innings (of a ten inning game) on May 8, 2001.  Kerry Wood (once) and Roger Clemens (twice) each struck out twenty in a nine-inning game.  These five instances are the only times in all of Major League history that twenty batters have been struck out by one pitcher.

Those are historic.

AL East
The high point for this division is the fact that all 5 teams have a positive run differential. In the graph below, you can see the totals:

The average team would be 19-15, good for a .555 win percentage. This would make the average team have a 90-72 record over 162 games. Their average run differential is +13; this would be good for a 18-16 record. This would translate to a 88-74 record over 162 games. The luck (at least, what I call it) is the difference in the amount of actual wins versus the pythagorean wins; in this case, they have 1 additional win over what their run differential shows.

On a team by team case, the Orioles are the top team according to record. The Blue Jays have the best run differential. The Orioles are the luckiest team (+3) while the Red Sox are the unluckiest (-2).

AL Central
The Central is the anti-East; all 5 teams have a negative run differential and no one really wants to win the division:

The average team would be 15-19 with a .435 win percentage. This would be 71-91 over the full season. The average run differential is -22, which translates to a 14-20 record; this team should have a 69-93 record over a full season. They would also have a luck rating of +1.

The Indians have the best record at 18-16 and a .529 winning percentage; they are on pace for a 86-76 record. The White Sox have the best run differential at -1; they’d win the division with a 80-82 record. The Indians have the highest luck (+3) and the Royals and White Sox are the unluckiest (-1 each).

AL West
If it weren’t for the Rangers, the West would be almost as bad off as the Central:

The average team would be 18-17 in this division with a .558 win percentage; they have a 83-79 record over 162 games. The average run differential would be +12, good for a 19-16 record; they’d have a 85-77 for the season in a perfect world. This team would be an unlucky team at -1.

The Rangers lead the division. They have the best record and the only positive run differential. They are on pace to win 118 games based of their run differential and 106 for their record.

NL East
Here’s the test for the AL East:

The avearge team would be 19-15 as well, but they’d have a slightly higher win percentage at .558. Their run differential is lower though; the average team would be +5 with a record of 18-16. The difference comes in the 162 game record – 84-78. The team would also have a +1 luck.

The Braves are the top team here, leading is record and run differential. All teams but the Phillies (-1) are lucky, with the Mets being the most with +4 win increase.

NL Central
The NL Central looks better than in recent years:

The average team would be 16-18 with a .478 win percentage. This would put them at 77-85 for 162 games. They’d have a +1 run differential and a 17-17 record. They’d be in line for an 81-81 record based off scoring. This would put them with a luck of -1.

The Cardinals lead the division in wins and run differential. The Pirates are the lucky team in the division with +2 while the Cardinals edge out the Astros -4 to -3.

NL West
There is a trend with the Wests – 1 team with a positive run differential:

The Dodgers are the equivalent of the Rangers here. They have the best record and the best run differential. They are also the luckiest team in the division (+2) while the Rockies are the unlucky ones (-2).

Comparison
The actual win percentage belongs to the NL East by .003 over the AL East. The AL West is third, followed by the NL Central, NL West, and AL Central.

Division run differential goes to the AL East by a sizeable margin. The AL West is second by another sizeable margin. The NL East, NL Central, NL West, and AL Central round out the rest.

The win percentage from run differential goes to the AL West by .002 over the AL East. They are followed by the NL East, NL Central, NL West, and AL Central.

I’d say the overall standings would be as follows:
1. AL East
2. AL West
3. NL East
4. NL Central
5. NL West
6. AL Central

Rank	Team		Record	Pythagorean	System	Total	Last Week
1		Texas Rangers	29	30	28	58.3	1
			23 – 12	25 – 10	Jurickson Profar
			Best run differential in the game.
2		Los Angeles Dodgers	30	28	14	53.3	4
			23 – 11	21 – 13	Zach Lee
			A 4 game winning streak has helped create the best record in baseball.
3		Atlanta Braves	28	27	16	51.3	3
			22 – 13	21 – 14	Julio Teheran
			Sweeping the Cardinals pushed the Braves into first.
4		St. Louis Cardinals	24	29	24	51.3	2
			20 – 14	24 – 10	Shelby Miller
			Rough weekend against the Braves.
5		Baltimore Orioles	27	23	13	46.7	6
			22 – 13	19 – 16	Manny Machado
			The run differential is coming down, but the O’s keep winning.
6		Washington Nationals	26	25	10	46.0	5
			21 – 13	19 – 15	Anthony Rendon
			The pitching staff has given up the fewest runs in baseball by 11 runs.
7		New York Yankees	23	24	19	45.3	7
			19 – 15	19 – 15	Manny Banuelos
			With this record and positive run differential belonging to a 3rd place team, it shows the AL East is the toughest division in baseball.
8		Tampa Bay Rays	25	22	7	42.0	8
			21 – 14	19 – 16	Hak-Ju Lee
			Only 3 home loses at home this season.
9		Toronto Blue Jays	21	26	11	42.0	9
			19 – 16	20 – 15	Travis d’Arnaud
			The best run differential in the AL East and they can only get to 4th place.
10		Miami Marlins	20	18	17	37.7	25
			18 – 16	17 – 17	Christian Yelich
			The Marlins are starting to play better, but have a long way to go to get up there with the Nationals and Braves.
11		Cincinnati Reds	18	20	12	35.3	19
			17 – 16	17 – 16	Billy Hamilton
12		New York Mets	22	7	22	34.0	12
			19 – 15	15 – 19	Matt Harvey
			The Mets continue to overachieve…for now.
13		Oakland Athletics	17	12	27	34.0	17
			18 – 17	16 – 19	Michael Choice
14		Boston Red Sox	9	19	29	31.3	14
			15 – 19	17 – 17	Xander Bogaerts
15		Detroit Tigers	15	14	20	31.0	20
			17 – 17	16 – 18	Jacob Turner
16		San Francisco Giants	16	15	9	29.0	10
			17 – 17	16 – 18	Gary Brown
17		Seattle Mariners	11	13	18	25.7	16
			16 – 20	17 – 19	Danny Hultzen
18		Houston Astros	10	21	5	25.7	21
			15 – 19	18 – 16	George Springer
19		Cleveland Indians	19	8	2	25.0	13
			18 – 16	15 – 19	Francisco Lindor
20		Chicago White Sox	13	17	1	24.7	15
			16 – 19	17 – 18	Nestor Molina
			Closer by committee has been declared in Chicago.
21		Philadelphia Phillies	12	16	6	24.7	22
			16 – 19	17 – 18	Trevor May
			Amaro is talking of possibly being sellers if things continue on the current pace.
22		Arizona Diamondbacks	6	11	30	23.3	11
			15 – 20	16 – 19	Trevor Bauer
23		Pittsburgh Pirates	14	3	21	23.0	26
			16 – 18	14 – 20	Jameson Taillon
			The only team in baseball that has not score 100 runs yet.
24		Los Angeles Angels	7	10	23	21.3	23
			15 – 20	16 – 19	Jean Segura
25		Milwaukee Brewers	8	4	15	15.7	24
			15 – 19	14 – 20	Wily Peralta
			I have a feeling Greinke will walk if the team doesn’t improve this year.
26		Kansas City Royals	3	5	26	15.0	27
			13 – 20	14 – 19	Wil Myers
27		Colorado Rockies	4	9	8	12.7	18
			13 – 20	15 – 18	Nolan Arenado
28		San Diego Padres	2	2	25	11.7	29
			12 – 23	13 – 22	Robbie Erlin
29		Chicago Cubs	5	6	3	10.0	28
			14 – 20	14 – 20	Brett Jackson
30		Minnesota Twins	1	1	4	3.0	30
			10 – 24	10 – 24	Miguel Sano
			It looks like it could be a while before this team turns it around.

If the playoffs started today…

Check back later as I look at divisions as a whole based off various statistics.

Top 20 Prospects
1. Manny Banuelos, LHP
Average Ranking: 1.57 (1st)

2. Dellin Betances, RHP
Average Ranking: 3.36 (3rd)

3. Gary Sanchez, C
Average Ranking: 2.86 (2nd)

4. Jose Campos, RHP
Average Ranking: 5.29 (5th)

5. Mason Williams, OF
Average Ranking: 4.57 (4th)

6. Dante Bichette Jr., 3B
Average Ranking: 5.64 (6th)

7. Ravel Santana, OF
Average Ranking: 7.67 (7th)

8. Austin Romine, C
Average Ranking: 8.54 (8th)

9. Adam Warren, RHP
Average Ranking: 11.82 (12th)

10. David Phelps, RHP
Average Ranking: 12.00 (13th)

11. Tyler Austin, C
Average Ranking: 11.13 (11th)

12. Slade Heathcott, OF
Average Ranking: 10.54 (10th)

13. J.R. Murphy, C
Average Ranking: 10.50 (9th)

14. Cito Culber, SS
Average Ranking: 13.33 (15th)

15. Jake Cave, LHP
Average Ranking: 15.50 (20th)

16. Nik Turley, LHP
Average Ranking: 18.40 (25th)

17. Angelo Gumbs, OF
Average Ranking: 13.75 (16th)

18. Brett Marshall, RHP
Average Ranking: 15.00 (T-17th)

19. Daniel Camarena, LHP
Average Ranking: 15.00 (T-17th)

20. Corban Joseph, 2B
Average Ranking: 17.00 (21st)

System Strength
Right-handed Pitching, Outfield, Catcher

System Weakness
Infield

Overall
Brian Cashman and his staff have done an excellent job at rebuilding the system that brought about the last MLB dynasty.

At the top are a pair of pitchers that the team plans on using in the next year – Banuelos and Betances. Both look like they could be mid-rotation starts; Banuelos has an upside of an ace, while Betances tops out as a #2.

The system is pretty stacked for catching; Sanchez is the best of the bunch, but I’d like to see him play at a higher level before annointing him the next Posada. Romine is first in line for the job though; we’ll see if he ends up as a regular or a back up.

This is definitely a top 10 system, which puts much less stress on making trades and worrying about big ticket free agents.