Top 100 Prospects as of 03/31/2010
When making this list, I looked at their abilities, their proximity to the majors, their potential, and what they’ve already done. You might notice some guys that ranked differently compared to their teammates on the team lists, which is common in making the Top 100 lists.
Also, this list is my opinion. There may be rankings here that you don’t agree with or don’t see on other lists. I base my rankings off of scouting reports, video, and other prospect lists and sites.
Rank Player Pos Team
1 Stephen Strasburg P Nationals
2 Jason Heyward OF Braves
3 Brian Matusz P Orioles
4 Desmond Jennings OF Rays
5 Michael Stanton OF Marlins
6 Jesus Montero C Yankees
7 Neftali Feliz P Rangers
8 Buster Posey C Giants
9 Madison Bumgarner P Giants
10 Chris Carter 1B Athletics
11 Carlos Santana C Indians
12 Dustin Ackley OF Mariners
13 Jarrod Parker P Diamondbacks
14 Justin Smoak 1B Rangers
15 Casey Kelly P Red Sox
16 Pedro Alvarez 3B Pirates
17 Michael Taylor OF Athletics
18 Martin Perez P Rangers
19 Wade Davis P Rays
20 Brett Wallace 1B Blue Jays
21 Logan Morrison 1B Marlins
22 Starlin Castro SS Cubs
23 Aroldis Chapman P Reds
24 Fernando Martinez OF Mets
25 Jeremy Hellickson P Rays
26 Alcides Escobar SS Brewers
27 Kyle Drabek P Blue Jays
28 Domonic Brown OF Phillies
29 Ryan Westmoreland OF Red Sox
30 Jhoulys Chacin P Rockies
31 Derek Norris C Nationals
32 Yonder Alonso 1B Reds
33 Aaron Hicks OF Twins
34 Christian Friedrich P Rockies
35 Eric Hosmer 1B Royals
36 Jacob Turner P Tigers
37 Josh Vitters 3B Cubs
38 Mike Moustakas 3B Royals
39 Wilson Ramos C Twins
40 Josh Bell 3B Orioles
41 Todd Frazier 2B Reds
42 Alex White P Indians
43 Wilmer Flores SS Mets
44 Aaron Crow P Royals
45 Austin Jackson OF Tigers
46 Tyler Matzek P Rockies
47 Nick Hagadone P Indians
48 Dee Gordon SS Dodgers
49 Michael Bowden P Red Sox
50 Shelby Miller P Cardinals
51 Donovan Tate OF Padres
52 Lonnie Chisenhall 3B Indians
53 Freddie Freeman 1B Braves
54 Jason Castro C Astros
55 Brett Lawrie 2B Brewers
56 Jenrry Mejia P Mets
57 Brandon Allen 1B Diamondbacks
58 Drew Storen P Nationals
59 Ryan Kalish OF Red Sox
60 Kyle Gibson P Twins
61 Tyler Flowers C White Sox
62 Mike Leake P Reds
63 Jaff Decker OF Padres
64 Arodys Vizcaino P Braves
65 Tim Beckham SS Rays
66 Casey Crosby P Tigers
67 Matt Dominguez 3B Marlins
68 Mike Montgomery P Royals
69 Michael Saunders OF Mariners
70 Junichi Tazawa P Red Sox
71 Ethan Martin P Dodgers
72 Lars Anderson 1B Red Sox
73 Trevor Reckling P Angels
74 Chris Withrow P Dodgers
75 Grant Green SS Athletics
76 Jaime Garcia P Cardinals
77 Bobby Borchering 3B Diamondbacks
78 Hector Rondon P Indians
79 Julio Teheran P Braves
80 Chris Heisley OF Reds
81 Carlos Carrasco P Indians
82 Jose Iglesias SS Red Sox
83 Daniel Schlereth P Tigers
84 Jordan Lyles P Astros
85 Ike Davis 1B Mets
86 Tim Melville P Royals
87 Carlos Triunfels SS Mariners
88 Ryan Tucker P Marlins
89 Mike Trout OF Angels
90 Manny Banuelos P Yankees
91 Jiovanni Mier SS Astros
92 Simon Castro P Padres
93 Reid Brignac SS Rays
94 Ben Revere OF Twins
95 Aaron Miller P Dodgers
96 Daryl Jones OF Cardinals
97 Chris Marrero 1B Nationals
98 Scott Sizemore 2B Tigers
99 Zach Wheeler P Giants
100 Austin Romine C Yankees
Minor League System Rankings as of 03/31/2010
I’ve also included the rank of how they evaluate amateur talent; I looked at my rankings and adjusted the pre-trade ranks. So, the Dodgers took credit for Carlos Santana rather than the Indians; it makes it a little more interesting to see how well each team drafts and signs international free agents.
1. Boston Red Sox
Pre-trade Ranking: 1
Many teams have to think it’s not fair that the Red Sox can afford almost any free agent while still getting the top amateurs. They had 7 guys in the top 100; it would have been eight if they still had Nick Hagadone.
1. Casey Kelly, P – Kelly wanted to try his hand at shortstop, but didn’t fare as well as he hoped. The Sox wanted him to be a pitcher, where he has top of the rotation potential. I could see him up by the end of next year, depending on the health of the rotation.
2. Ryan Westmoreland, OF – He’s got the tools to be a star, now we just need to see if his body can hold up. He’s young, so he’s still got time to prove his health and his developing power.
3. Michael Bowden, P – While I don’t expect him to be a star, he’ll be a solid mid-rotation starter. John Sickels makes the Jeff Suppan comparison, but I see him being better than that.
4. Ryan Kalish, OF – Another solid outfielder. He can do pretty much everything that you’d ask for. If he can develop more power, he’ll be one of the top outfield prospects in the game.
5. Josh Reddick, OF – Reddick is much like Kalish, except he has the power. He’s also older and at a higher level. Look for him to get the first call when an outfielder goes down.
6. Junichi Tazawa, P – While he didn’t look good in his call up, Tazawa has the ability to succeed in the majors. I would expect him to see some more bullpen time to get used to major league hitters; his future is in the rotation, if there is ever an opening.
7. Lars Anderson, 1B – Anderson was on everyone’s lists last year, but an unhealthy year has hurt his stock. Add in the lack of power for the position, and Anderson doesn’t match up well to the other top first basemen prospects.
8. Anthony Rizzo, 1B – Much like Anderson, Rizzo lacks power at first base. His advantage is he’s younger, so he’s got time to develop a little more. I don’t see him making it with the Sox, with Anderson and Youkilis ahead of him.
9. Jose Iglesias – Iglesias has the potential to jump up the rankings in the next year, if his bat comes around. He’s a superior defender, which makes his bat less important.
10. Stolmy Pimentel, P – Pimentel has the stuff to be a very good pitcher, especially since he’s added velocity. If he can keep it up against the higher levels, he should have a nice major league career.
2. Cleveland Indians
Pre-trade Ranking: 19
This is important for a team like the Indians; with rebuilding, they are relying a lot on the system. Of course, a lot of these guys came from trades; Hagadone, Carlos Carrasco, and Carlos Santana all came from trading guys off.
1. Carlos Santana, C – One of the best catching prospect in baseball, and the Dodgers might be kicking themselves for dealing him for Casey Blake. The bat won’t be the question; can he handle the position? Many do think so, but time will tell this year.
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B – There were character questions when Chisenhall was drafted, but it appears that those are behind him. He’s moved over to third from short, so he should be able to handle the position. He’s still needing time to develop, so don’t expect him this year.
3. Nick Hagadone, P – He’s coming off of Tommy John surgery (in 2007), so don’t look for him in Cleveland anytime soon; Boston and Cleveland have been very careful with him. He’ll see an increased work load, but there is talk of using him out of the bullpen. It’d be a waste, as he’s got 3 solid pitches and can be a front of the rotation starter.
4. Alex White, P – White has the potential to be an ace, but the jury’s still out at this point. After this season, the Indians should know what they have here; there are questions as to his role – starter or reliver. If he’s successful, look for him at the end of 2011.
5. Hector Rondon, P – Rondon has an incredible fast ball. The question comes with the secondary pitches. If he can get those in line, he’ll be a quality starter. If not, he’ll be a solid set up man. He’ll see some time in Cleveland this year.
6. Carlos Carrasco, P – If Carrasco pitches to potential this year, he’ll be a force in Cleveland’s rotation. That’s a big if. He’s had a Jekyll and Hyde career and he’ll need to over come that.
7. Michael Brantley, OF – There are many questions about Brantley sticking as a starter. He makes contact, is patient, and has great speed. He lacks power of a true corner outfielder. Some scouts see him as a 4th outfielder; some see him as a starter. If the Indians trade Russ Branyan, he’ll get his shot.
8. Nick Weglarz, OF – Weglarz can be a better outfielder than Brantley, if he’s healthy. That’s been the one thing holding him back in the minors. If he can make it through this season with out missing much time, he’ll be on the road to a solid career. He’s patient and has good power.
9. Jason Knapp, P – Knapp has the stuff to match up with any of these pitchers, but he’s got questionable mechanics. If he can get straightened out without losing anything, he could move to a front of the rotation starter; at this point, he’s a reliever.
10. Lou Marson, C – Marson will have the first opportunity to catch for the Tribe. He’s a contact hitter that is a stellar receiver. He won’t be able to hold off Santana, but he’ll have value until he’s ready.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
Pre-trade Ranking: 4
The Rays are almost always near the top in the prospect recent years; they draft very well and they make good trades. This system is full of quality arms. Everyone one on the top 100 was drafted/signed by the Rays.
1. Desmond Jennings, OF – Jennings will be the perfect lead off hitter if/when Carl Crawford leaves. He was drafted as a tools guy and was able to translate them into skills. He’s got great discipline and pitch recognition to go with plus speed. He’s also got average power that should translate to double digit teen homers. He won’t strikeout much. His defense is pretty good for center due to his speed; his arm is also good for the position.
2. Wade Davis, P – Davis saw some MLB time last year, and should be a fixture in the rotation this year. He’s got 4 major league pitches. His fastball hits the mid-90s and is his top pitch. He also has a plus curve ball that keeps hitters honest. He’s also got an average change-up and cutter. I see him as a 2-3 starter, especially if he keeps control of all 4 pitches.
3. Jeremy Hellickson, P – Hellickson is close to being ready for the Rays. He split last year between Double A and Triple A, posting strong strike out, walk, and hit rates. He needs to work on his groundball rate, which sat at a low 35%. He’s got 3 pitches that are all average – a mid-90s fastball, a curve, and a change-up. He needs another half season and an opening in the rotation before he’s ready.
4. Matt Moore, P – Moore had a little bit of a down season. He posted strong strike out numbers (over 12 per 9 innings for his career). He also saw a jump in his walk rate, which shows that his command still needs work. He’s got a decent groundball rate – 45.8% – and doesn’t give up many homers. He’s got a while to go before he’s ready.
5. Tim Beckham, SS – Beckham has been considered a little bit of a disappointment by baseball people, which is unfair. He just turned 20 and he’s not doing horrible. In Lo-A, he wasn’t hitting bad; he just didn’t show much power and the ability to get on base. His power right now is doubles power, but as he matures it will turn into homer power. Scouts are also concerned about his base running; he was caught stealing 10 out of 23 times.
6. Alexander Colome, P – Colome didn’t impress many with his North American debut, but shows he was a much better pitcher in his second season. His strikeout rate is over 11 per 9 innings. He doesn’t give up many hits (less than 1 per inning) and didn’t give up a homer last year. His ground ball rate and line drive rate also look pretty good. He’s got a mid-90s fastball that could see another MPH or 2 added to it, along with a curve and change. We’ll see what happens as he faces more advanced competition.
7. Jacob McGee, P – There was a time that McGee was named with Wade Davis and was a top of the rotation arm. Then he was forced to have Tommy John surgery and miss a year of development. He’s shown that he’s back over the last season, and could jump up rankings with another strong season. He’s got a mid-90s fastball, a great curve, and a solid change-up. He could see some bullpen time for the Rays this year to get used to the Majors.
8. Reid Brignac, SS – Brignac is in a bad spot in this system; he’s seen a lot of talent pass him by and he’s been blocked by Jason Bartlett. Brignac’s power never developed like they had hoped and he doesn’t have the speed needed to make up for the lace of power. He’s got to be hoping for a trade at this point, because it doesn’t appear he’s going to get his shot in Tampa.
9. Nick Barnese, P – Barnese’s main concern right now is health; last season started late due to an injury. As a result, he saw his strikeout rate drop by 4 and his walk rate increase slightly. His low-90s fastball has some good sinking action, which resulted in a ground ball rate of 52%. His curve ball and change-up are good, which makes him project as a mid-rotation starter.
10. Kyle Lobstein, P – Lobstein is a promising arm that’s a work in progress. His fastball sits in the low-90s, but has a good curve and change-up to complement it. He’s gets groundballs and had good command of his pitches. This season should be his first taste of full-season ball, so we’ll see how his endurance is. At this time, I’d say he’s anywhere between a 3 and 5 starter.
4. Cincinnati Reds
Pre-trade Ranking: 6
Without the signing of Aroldis Chapman, the Reds would have dropped to 11th. They’ve developing some good fielders and Mike Leake looks like a top flight pitching prospect. If they have another strong draft and international free agent class, they move up further.
1. Aroldis Chapman, P – Chapman was the prize of the international market this winter and the Reds were the surprise winner. Scouts see everything from top of the rotation starter to middle reliever. I think he’ll end up a good 2-3 starter for the Reds. I don’t expect him to have an impact this year though.
2. Yonder Alonso, 1B – Alonso is the prototypical first baseman; tons of power with a defensive liability. He’s also having problems hitting lefties at this point, something that could limit him in the future. I’ve read that he may be trade bait as the Reds are happy with Joey Votto at first and aren’t comfortable with Alonso in the outfield. If he were on the market, you’d probably find a few teams interested in him.
3. Todd Frazier, 2B – Frazier can hit; there was never a question of that. Frazier was drafted as a shortstop, but has played second, third, and the outfield in the minors. He hasn’t really stuck at a position. I feel he’ll be a capable middle infielder; he’s probably best suited to play second.
4. Mike Leake, P – Leake has the potential to be a middle rotation pitcher. He’s got good stuff and pitches. He could be fast tracked and up by next year; not to bad for a guy that was drafted less than a year ago.
5. Chris Heisley, OF – Heisley appears to be what you want in a corner outfielder – .290 hitter with good pop (15-20 homers) and won’t kill you in the field. He’s pretty much ready and could step in if a guy goes down this year.
6. Juan Francisco, 3B – If Francisco can fix the holes in his swing, he’ll be a great hitter. That’s a big if, because the holes are pretty big. Scouts also question if he’ll be able to stay at third, which is a valid concern. He’ll get lost behind Votto and Alonso if he has to move to first base.
7. Zack Cozart, SS – While he is moving forward, he’s got limited up side. He’s good with the glove, which can be enough for shortstop depending on the team. He’s got decent pop for the position as well. He may not put up a high average though, which could impact him in the upper levels.
8. Travis Wood, P – For a while, Wood was considered a first round bust. Now that he’s healthy, he’s pitching pretty well. He won’t be the ace that many expected, but he’ll be a solid #4 guy. He’s still at least 1 year away, as the Reds should be cautious with him for the time being.
9. Yorman Rodriguez, OF – Rodriguez was another big international signings (2 years ago though) based off incredible tools. He’s working to turn those tools into skills. He’s young and still developing. If he has a big year, then he could be top 5 in the system.
10. Matt Maloney, P – Maloney will be an average starter, due to average stuff. His strikeout rates are pretty good, so that gives people a little optimism.
5. Kansas City Royals
Pre-trade Ranking: 7
The one thing Drayton Moore has done for this organization is re-stock the minor league system. They draft well and have been able to reel in a couple of international prospects. They’ve shown they are willing to spend on amateurs, which is something they’ll have to do to compete.
1. Eric Hosmer, 1B – His bat is good, but there are questions. He had Lasik, so we’ll see if that was the problem. He should be able to hit for average and power, if he’s healthy. At this point, it’s a big if.
2. Mike Moustakas, 3B – Moustakas and Hosmer are neck and neck. Hosmer is a better hitter, but Moustakas has the better glove and position. He’ll start the year at Double A and finish at Triple A. Look for him to push Alex Gordon in 2011.
3. Mike Montgomery, P – Montgomery get’s a good amount of groundballs, which makes him a very effective pitcher. He’s got a good change up and an improved curve. He also can throw hard, with control. Look for him to start the year in Double A.
4. Aaron Crow, P – Crow is a player that can fly through the minors. He’s got the potential to be a 2-3 starter. I could see him with the Royals by the end of the year.
5. Tim Melville, P – He was a 4th round steal in the 2008 draft; he was a first round talent from the same state that dropped over signability. He still young and needs to work on command, but he could easily be a top of the rotation starter. He’s got 2 very good pitches (fastball and curve) with a 3rd that’s coming along (change up). He’ll probably be in Hi A for the beginning of the year.
6. Danny Duffy, P – Duffy is another solid arm, but doesn’t project as well as Montgomery, Crow, and Melville. He’s got 3 good pitches with iffy control. He’s looking like he’s back of the rotation at this point. He’ll probably see most of his time in Triple A.
7. Wil Myers, C – Myers has the bat for the majors, but it probably won’t be as a catcher. He’s athletic enough to play any position though. He’s raw with the bat too, but I expect him to really break out this year.
8. Noel Arguelles, P – Many scouts said that Arguelles would have been a first round talent in the draft, if he would have been draft eligible. Instead, the Royals got the pitcher for a decent signing bonus. He’s got the potential to be a front line starter, but it’s hard to judge at this point without him facing any competition yet.
9. Carlos Rosa, P – Rosa is a reliever who’s ready to the KC bullpen. He’s got amazing arm strength, but needs to work on his control. I expect him to spend the whole season with the Royals.
10. Jordan Parraz, OF – Parraz is a toolsy outfield prospect with plenty of questions. First, he’s got that injury tag. He’s also old for the level’s he’s played at (he’ll be 26 by the end of the season). This could be the make or break year for him.
6. Detroit Tigers
Pre-trade Ranking: 18
The Tigers got a boost by adding Austin Jackson and Daniel Schlereth to their system. Add in the recent drafting of Jacob Turner and Casey Crosby, and they have a top notch system. They will sign above slot in the draft, so they don’t miss many good first rounders.
1. Jacob Turner, P – This ace in the making dropped to the Tigers because of signability (sound familiar). He’s got an excellent fastball. He’s working on improving the command of his breaking ball. He’s also developing a change-up as his third pitch, which he didn’t need in high school.
2. Austin Jackson, OF – Jackson was the center piece for the deal that sent Curtis Granderson to New York and Edwin Jackson to Arizona. He’s got the tools to be an everyday centerfielder, but I don’t think he’s ready yet. He’s getting the shot this spring to be in Detroit, but he really needs a half season in Triple A.
3. Casey Crosby, P – Crosby has shown no ill effects from Tommy John surgery. He’s got a 2-seam and a 4-seam fast ball; the 4-seamer is lights out, while the 2-seamer is still a work in progress. His curveball, when effective, is a definite out pitch. He’s working on a change up, which he’ll need to be a starter. He’s easily a mid-rotation starter.
4. Daniel Schlereth, P – Schlereth, another key part of the Granderson/Jackson trade, is a fast moving relief prospect. He got his feet wet with Arizona last year and has the stuff to be a closer in the majors. Look for him to start the season with Detroit and a possible replacement for Jose Valverde when his contract is up.
5. Scott Sizemore, 2B – Sizemore will be able to prove his worth this year. After a breakout season split between Double A and Triple A, he’s the default starting second baseman this year. He’s a guy that can do a lot, but none of his skills stands out. He’s a disciplined hitter with little pop. He’s also an average defender.
6. Alex Avila, C – Avila is the catcher of the future for the Tigers. He’s got pop and is patient. He needs to work on his strike outs, but will be a solid catcher if nothing changes. He’s made significant progress defensively, so sticking at the position isn’t a concern.
7. Andy Oliver, P – Oliver is a high upside arm that looked pretty well in the Arizona Fall League. He needs at least one more season in the minors to work on his command, but a late season bullpen audition isn’t out of the question.
8. Ryan Striebly, 1B – He’s the big build first baseman with power. Unfortunately, he’s block by another one (Miguel Cabrera). He’ll be waiting for Cabrera to be the full time DH or to be traded to somewhere else.
9. Wilkin Ramirez, OF – Ramirez is one of those tools guys that people drool over. He’s coming along, but right now he needs to turn the tools into production. He needs to work on making contact if he wants to succeed.
10. Cody Satterwhite, P – Satterwhite appears to be a power reliever, but there are questions about his health. He’s also working on improving his command. I could see him getting a shot next season.
7. Washington Nationals
Pre-trade Ranking: 8
Without the 2009 draft, the Nationals would move from top third to bottom third. Strasburg is a start in the making and Storen is under the radar due to Strasburg. Norris is definitely someone to watch as well. They will need to continue to have strong drafts to off-set the loss of Strasburg and Storen to the majors this year.
1. Stephen Strasburg, P – If you don’t know about Strasburg, you’ve been living under a rock. He’s got an incredible fast ball that can hit triple digits; it also moves and looks like his other pitches coming out of his hand. His curveball has late break and has some horizontal movement; it also comes from the same arm-slot that the fastball comes from. He’s got an above average change-up that he doesn’t use much; he should work on it in the minors to prefect it. He’ll start in Double A, but I wouldn’t be surprise if he was in Washington by June.
2. Derek Norris, C – I’m expecting big things this year from Norris; he’s got approach of someone that’s been in the majors a while. He’s a very disciplined hitter and doesn’t swing for pitches out of the zone. He can recognize pitches better than others in the low minors. He’s still raw as a catcher, since he’s only been behind the plate for 3 years. He’s got the arm for the position, but needs to work on calling games and his footwork; he can’t block balls that well. He’ll still need a minimum of 2 seasons in the minors.
3. Drew Storen, P – The Nationals took Storen with their second first round pick in 2009 knowing he’d be a fast mover. He’s got closer written all over him and will see time in the bullpen this year. There was talk of moving him to the rotation, but I don’t see much to it. He’d need to improve his change-up, but that might take longer than the Nationals would hope.
4. Ian Desmond, SS – It was announced over the weekend that Desmond beat out Christian Guzman for the starting shortstop job. He’s got limited power, but his speed and batting eye should help make up for it. He’s a solid glove in the field too. He won’t be considered an all star, but he’ll be a solid player for years.
5. Danny Espinosa, SS – Espinosa may bump Desmond to second, since he’s a better hitter and fielder. He’s got above average power for a middle infielder. He’s got holes in his swing he needs to iron out and he needs to cut down on his strike outs. He’s got speed, but need to work on his stealing; he was thrown out in a little over a third of his attempts. He’s got great range and a strong arm, so he’ll stick at short.
6. Chris Marrero, 1B – Marrero is a bat only first baseman. He’s got a nice, short swing which generates a good amount of power. He’s still tapping into his power, so he should continue to hit homers as he gets to Triple A and the majors. He needs to work on recognizing off speed pitches, which should lower his strikeout numbers. He should be ready for the majors when Dunn leaves.
7. Destin Hood, OF – Hood is still very raw, but the Nationals liked what they saw enough to take him in the second round of the 2008 draft. He’s got a lot of work ahead of him; he strikes out almost a third of the time he hits. He doesn’t have much speed and has limited power. The power should develop though. He’ll be in Lo-A this year and won’t be ready for the majors for quite a while.
8. Michael Burgess, OF – Burgess has great power, but the current concern is his long swing; it causes a high strike out rate and low average. If he can be a little more patient, he should be able to increase his walk rate, which isn’t horrible now. He also needs to work on his base running, where he was thrown out 8 times in 20 attempts. His arm is suited well for right field and gets good reads on balls hit his direction. He should start in Double A this year.
9. Aaron Thompson, P – Thompson has average pitches, but he has great control of them. The lefty has problems allowing hits, which will only get worse at he moves to Triple A and could limit him to a LOOGY in the majors. He’s got 4 pitches, but only his change-up is a plus pitch. He could see some time in the bullpen this year to get his feet wet, but don’t expect him full time until 2011.
10. Juan Jaime, P – Jaime is a good power arm, but there are questions about his secondary pitches. He hasn’t developed anything to complement his fast ball. At this point, I’d say he’s a reliever; he could be a closer if he can get an average curve or slider.
8. Atlanta Braves
Pre-trade Ranking: 3
It’s seems like Atlanta always has a strong system. This year they will graduate Jason Heyward to the majors. If you look at the guys they’ve traded away though (Neftali Feliz, Tyler Flowers for example), you’d have to wonder how good this team could be soon.
1. Jason Heyward, OF – Heyward is the top hitting prospect in baseball and #2 overall (list forthcoming). There are no flaws with his bat and he’s still improving. If an outfielder is struggling this year, Heyward could be a shot.
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B – Freeman profiles as the prototypical first baseman, even with the down power numbers. He’s young, so look for those to bounce back.
3. Julio Teheran, P – Teheran has the pitches to be a great pitcher, but he’s still young so a lot could change. There are also concerns about his health, as he’s had shoulder problems in the last year.
4. Arodys Vizcaino, P – Vizcaino was the true prize of the Vasquez deal; this young pitcher has a strong groundball rate and great strike out rate. He’s got a long way to go, but has the potential to be a number 1 starter.
5. Randall Delgado, P – Delgado is another high potential pitcher who still have a lot to prove. He’s working on control, but has strong strikeout numbers.
6. Craig Kimbrel, P – Kimbrel has received the infamous “closer of the future” tag that so many live arms receive in the minors. He’s got a great fastball, but needs to work on his secondary pitches to be successful.
7. Cody Johnson, OF – This may be a high ranking, but the potential here is high. He’s got the power, but needs to work on the rest of his game. He strikes out a lot, but also has increased his walks. If he can fix his holes, he could be just behind Heyward in potential.
8. Mike Minor, P – Minor was a solid pick for the Braves in this past draft; he’s got #2 potential, especially if he can develop a curve or slider to go with his change-up and fastball. Look for the team to be a little cautious when promoting him.
9. Adam Milligan, OF – Milligan is that guy who will be without a position but will be in the line up because he can hit. He’s not a good left fielder and could end up at first base. He’s got a ton of power potential and can get on base. I see him as an Adam Dunn type.
10. Zeke Spruill, P – Spruill could be a good pitcher, but he really needs to work on giving up hits; he gave up 120 hits in 116.0 innings. As he moves through the system, this will be the make or break deal for him. He’s got good pitches, but none that really stand out.
9. Florida Marlins
Pre-trade Ranking: 9
While the Marlins are known for trading veterans for prospects, this ranking is really based off their drafts. Michael Stanton may be the best hitter in the minors with Heyward graduating to the big leagues. I expect big things out of Logan Morrison too.
1. Michael Stanton, OF – Stanton is probably the second best hitting prospect behind Jason Heyward. The only issue is his strike outs, but he’s got the power to be an All Star corner outfielder. Don’t expect him this year, but he could start next year in Miami.
2. Logan Morrison, 1B – Morrison took a step forward this past season with his eye; he was more patient than he previously was. He did see a drop in power, but many associate it with a wrist injury. I expect him to start the season in Triple A, but wouldn’t rule out a mid-season call up if he’s hitting well.
3. Matt Dominguez, 3B – He can handle third, but his bat disappeared in Hi-A last year. He’s still got a ways to go before he’s ready to join the major league club. I expect him to be in Double A for the season; that will determine what to project for him.
4. Ryan Tucker, P – Tucker could take over the closer role in the future, if he can stay healthy. His injury this past year was to his knee, so there is no worry about his arm, unless he changed his mechanics.
5. Chad James, P – James doesn’t have much professional experience, but scouts like his arsenal. He’s got a strong fastball that tops out in the mid-90s. He’s got that power curve that helps lefties. If he pitches to his potential, he can be a future ace.
6. Scott Cousins, OF – As of right now, Cousins is more tools that skills. He’s going to have to work on his plate discipline to be a regular player. Most scouts are saying he’s more of a fourth outfielder than starter.
7. Kyle Skipworth, C – Skipworth was highly touted coming out of high school, but his professional career has been no where close. He’s only 20, so he’s still got quite a bit of time before being dubbed a bust. Another bad season or 2 may destroy his career.
8. Gaby Sanchez, 1B – Sanchez projects as a league average first baseman; he’ll see plenty of opportunities this year. He’ll really have to stand out though to stay with Florida once Morrison is ready; he’s probably auditioning for another team rather than playing for a job.
9. Jake Smolinski, 2B – Smolinski was the key to the deal that shipped Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to Washington. He’s got a good, developing bat, but his defense has his position up in the air. Drafted as a second baseman, he won’t stick at the position. He’s going to be used at third, which could suit him.
10. Jhan Marinez, P – Marinez is going to be another solid bullpen arm. He’s got great velocity, but doesn’t have great control. If he can harness his pitches, he’ll have a chance to be a closer. If not, look for him to be a 6-7th inning guy.
10. New York Mets
Pre-trade Ranking: 13
The Mets system is underrated, in my opinion. People are down on Fernando Martinez, but he’s still young and full of potential. They have sleepers in Wilmer Flores, Jenrry Mejias, Ike Davis, and Ruben Tejada. If the guys in the low minors continue to develop, they should be set for some time.
1. Jenrry Mejia, P – Mejia’s best pitch is his fastball; he can hit the lower ‘90s and it moves. He’s got a good change-up that looks like his fastball and can move as well. The curveball is a work in progress, but is the key to him staying in the rotation. He’s got a strong groundball rate, which really helps his stock.
2. Wilmer Flores, SS – Flores played in Lo-A last year as an 18 year old, which is ridiculously young for the level. His numbers are a little low for the level, but, considering the age, aren’t that bad. He’ projects to be a third baseman down the line, so he’ll need to improve upon his power. He’s raw, but has a lot of time to develop.
3. Fernando Martinez, OF – Martinez is the current whipping boy for Mets fans; I think it’s because he’s been a top prospect for a while and hasn’t made it to the majors yet. It’s not fair because he’s 21. Give him a full season at Triple A to prove he’s healthy, and Martinez could be back on the top of the rankings next year.
4. Ike Davis, 1B – Davis could be the starting first baseman for the Mets this year. He’s got a decent bat with good power. He’s not one of those guys without a position that get’s thrown in at first; he’s pretty good defensively. If the Mets are patient with the grown pains of his rookie season, he could have a nice career in New York.
5. Reese Havens, SS – Havens has good power and discipline for a middle infield prospect. His concerns are position and health. Many think he won’t stick at short, especially with Flores and Tejada in the system; he looks better as a second baseman. If he can successfully make the switch and stay healthy, he’ll move pretty quickly.
6. Kyle Allen, P – Allen is young, but he’s pretty advanced for his age. He’s got a strong fastball that moves, a good slider, and a change-up that he’s got great control of. He had a groundball rate of 55% and almost 8 K/9 in Lo-A. The Mets need to be patient with him, but he could be a mid-rotation starter.
7. Jon Niese, P – Niese is fighting for the 5th starter spot this year, but will probably start the season in Triple A. His main concern is health – he missed time with a hamstring injury last year. He’s got a high 80s fastball, a good curve, and a cutter that’s a work in progress. He looks like a back of the rotation starter to me.
8. Ruben Tejada, SS – Tejada is another young shortstop prospect who looks like he could stick at the position. He’s probably in Triple A this year, where he can work on his plate discipline. His speed is pretty good and he’s worked on his base running this past year. I’d expect he’ll see some time if/when Jose Reyes gets injured.
9. Brad Holt, P – Holt is working to have a pitch to go with his mid-90s fastball. Right now, he looks like a middle reliever due to not having that second pitch. He’ll be in the minor all season, unless the bullpen is killed with injuries (which is a possibility based off last years Mets). He also needs to prove that he can pitch for a full season, which makes a conversion to the bullpen more likely.
10. Jefry Marte, 3B – Marte is another young player moved aggressively through the Mets system. While Flores and Tejada have done OK, Marte struggled. He’s got a solid bat, but needs to shorten his swing to move to the next level. He also needs to work on his defense; if he doesn’t, he’ll lose value as an outfielder.
11. Minnesota Twins
Pre-trade Ranking: 14
The success of the Twins lies with their minor league system. They normally draft well and made an international splash this off-season by signing Miguel Sano. They should continue to get the young guys cycling through the system.
1. Aaron Hicks, OF – Many scouts like Hicks’ arm when he was drafted, but the Twins gave him a shot in the outfield. His debut was pretty good. Last year was his first full season in the minors and he didn’t do bad. He’s very patient, which is great for a player of his age (19). He’s projected to have good power and good speed. In the field, he’s just as good; his arm is strong and his speed allows him to cover a lot of ground.
2. Wilson Ramos, C – Ramos is one of the under the radar catching prospects. He’s got raw power that should translate to actual power. He makes good contact and has decent speed (for a catcher). He does need to work on his walk and strikeout rates. He’s also solid defensively and shouldn’t move from behind the plate.
3. Kyle Gibson, P – Gibson is a little bit of a question mark due to a stress fracture in forearm right before last years draft; he was a top 5 pick prior to the injury and ended up being picked at 22. Gibson has a great 2 seam fastball and couple of developing breaking pitches. He’s projected as a 2-3 starter. He could move fast if the Twins feel he’s healthy.
4. Ben Revere, OF – Revere didn’t fare as well as people would hope this past year. He won’t hit for power, but has great speed. His stolen base rate is low for as good as his speed is. I’ve heard multiple people compare him to Juan Pierre, including the weak arm for center field. He could be up by the end of next year.
5. Danny Valencia, 3B – Valencia is a guy that does a lot, but nothing particularly well. He started slow every time he went to a new level, but eventually broke through. He’s good for 15-20 homers, which is low for third; he does have good contract though. His defense is a little questionable, so don’t be surprised if he ends up moving positions at some point.
6. Angel Morales, OF – Morales is a raw prospects – he’s probably got the best raw power in the system. He’s got plate discipline issues though; he had the lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2009 at 27.7%. He also doesn’t walk much. His speed is a plus; there are predictions of 20/20 potential. He can handle center, but will probably end up in right.
7. Miguel Sano, SS – In a year or 2, Sano could be at the top of this list. It’s hard to rank him since he’s so young and hasn’t made his pro debut. People are already questioning if he can stay at short, based off his size (6’3”, 200 lbs). John Sickels give him an upside of Miguel Cabrera, which is mighty high praise.
8. Joe Benson, OF – Benson has the tools to be a major leaguer, but he needs to translate those to skill. He’s developing nicely though. His power is starting to develop and his speed is pretty good. He needs to cut down on his strike outs and his contact rate is low. He’s got the arm to play all 3 outfield spots.
9. David Bromberg, P – Bromberg has had an up and down career in the minors. He struggled in 2008, but led the minors in strikeouts. Last year, he worked on his mechanics and lowered his ERA by more than a run; the result was the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He’s got a 90 MPH fastball, but doesn’t keep it down; he’ll need to work on his groundball rate to be successful.
10. Chris Parmelee, 1B – There is no question about Parmelee’s power; he can rake. He’s also very patient and will take a walk. It’s the remaining areas of his game that concern scouts. He can’t field very well, so he’s a DH in the making. If he can keep his power numbers up, he could move Jason Kubel back to the outfield by the end of the year.
12. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pre-trade Ranking: 2
The Dodgers still have some good players in their system, but how nice would Carlos Santana and Josh Bell look right now? They draft well, so they can fill in a few of the holes in the up coming draft.
1. Dee Gordon, SS – Gordon’s calling card is his speed. He’s projected to be a top of the order hitter. He’s very fast, but needs to work on his base running (he was caught stealing 25 times out of 98 attempts). He’s going to have little power and needs to work on his defense, but he’s very solid right now.
2. Chris Withrow, P – Withrow was close to being number one here; he’s got ace potential with a mid-90s fastball. He needs to work on his command and his third pitch (change-up). His fastball has lots of movement and his curve will be his out pitch.
3. Ethan Martin, P – Martin is almost as good as Withrow, but just at a lower level. He’s also got command issues and needs to cut down on the walks. He’s got a great fastball and a solid curve. He’s got a problem with pitching up in the zone, which could hurt him as he advances through the system.
4. Aaron Miller, P – Miller’s first pro season was promising. He’s got a good fastball/slider combo and he’s very athletic. He needs to work on his command and develop another pitch. He’s doesn’t have the potential of Withrow and Martin, but would make a solid back of the rotation starter.
5. Scott Elbert, P – Elbert’s been around for a while now and switched between starting and relieving. I believe that he’s a set up man in the making, with the possibility of closing. He’s got a good fastball and curve, which is all he’d need out of the ‘pen. He should have an impact this year.
6. Garrett Gould, P – Gould is the latest promising high school pitcher that the Dodgers has drafted. Like the other Dodgers pitching prospects, he’s got a good fastball and curve. He’s got questionable mechanics though; combine that with his lack of an effective third pitch, he’s got bullpen written all over him.
7. Andrew Lambo, OF – Lambo was one of the Dodgers top prospects coming into last year and hit the wall. In Double A, he still hit for contact, but didn’t improve on his power or discipline. If he can improve in Triple A this year, he’ll have a solid chance at making his MLB debut in September.
8. Josh Lindblom, P – Lindblom was switched to the bullpen this past season and seems to have found his role. He’s got a good fastball that sinks and curveball that works well out of the bullpen. He won’t be a closer, but would be perfect for the 8th inning. He could be with the Dodgers this year.
9. Ivan DeJesus, SS – DeJesus lost 2009 to a broken leg, so this could be a big year for him. He’s got good plate discipline and contact ability, but won’t hit for power. He’s solid defensively, but I’d expect him to move to second since Gordon is a better player.
10. Allen Webster, P – Webster took a step forward this past year. He improved his command and was striking out players left and right. He doesn’t walk many hitters and keeps the ball in the park. If he can get a few more groundballs, he’ll be a solid, mid-rotation starter.
13. New York Yankees
Pre-trade Ranking: 5
I don’t think the Yankees have the strongest drafts each year, but they can get those international guys. I’m not saying they don’t draft well; they have a good draft here and there, but not consistently like the Red Sox, Tigers, or Rays.
1. Jesus Montero, C – Montero can hit, plain and simple. He’s probably the top catching prospect in baseball. There are concerns defensively; scouts question his ability to call games. He loses some luster if he has to move to first base, but will still have a solid bat for the position.
2. Manny Banuelos, P – Banuelos is small for a pitcher, but as a lefty with a mid-90s fastball, many will look past this. He’s working with a curve and change-up that project as average but should improve with time. He’s got strong strikeout numbers (8.8 K/9), which is a positive. His walk numbers aren’t bad either. The Yankees will be patient, so it’ll be a few years before we see him.
3. Austin Romine, C – I think Romine is a better catching prospect than Montero, but he lacks the impact bat. He improved his walk rate and power last season, along with his defensive skills. He’ll start the season at Double-A, where he’ll handle the catching duties full time.
4. Slade Heathcott, OF – Heathcotts tools are his calling card. He’s average or better for the 4 of the standard 5 tools, and has been improving across the board. I don’t see him developing much power, but he’s got time to prove me wrong. He’ll still need at least 2 years in the minors, but should be ready once Granderson’s contract is up.
5. Zach McAllister, P – McAllister is a sinker ball pitcher, so he’s very effective but his K rates are low. He is a control pitcher who will challenge hitters. His sinker will get him a lot of groundball. He’s projected as a back of the rotation pitcher.
6. Mark Melancon, P – Melancon has the potential to be a great set up man, but I don’t think he’ll make it as a closer, especially following of the years of Rivera. He’s averaged a 4:1 K to BB ratio over his minor league career and less than 1 base runner per inning. He should be a fixture in the bullpen this year.
7. Kelvin DeLeon, OF – DeLeon’s U.S. debut was promising but shows he has a long way to go. He’s got raw power and good speed, which should help him as he moves up the system. He really needs to work on his pitch recognition and plate discipline; he struck out in 30% of his at bats. If he can work on this, he’s got the potential to be an all star.
8. D.J. Mitchell, P – Mitchell pitched well across both A-Levels last year and surprised a lot of people. He’s got a lo-90s sinker ball and a great curve, but doesn’t have a change-up to make him a top starter. He also struggles against lefties, so he seems destined for the bullpen. He’ll see most of his time this year at Double A.
9. David Adams, 2B – Adams jumped to Hi-A last year, and saw his power number jump with him. He’s got gap power, but it looks like it might be transitioning to pure power. He’s a strong contact hitter and a solid approach to hitting. He’ll be able to stick at the position, but this year will show what type of power he has.
10. Jose Ramirez, P – Ramirez is coming into this year as a sleeper. He’s young, but already has a fastball that tops out at 96. He limits hits strikes out more than 3 hitters for every walk he issues. The only thing holding him back at this point is the fact that he’s faced very little competition. This season will see what he can do.
14. Texas Rangers
Pre-trade Ranking: 22
The Rangers have a strong system overall, but they lack the high profile guys outside of Feliz, Perez, and Smoak. They’ve drafted pretty well the last few years and they have candidates for break outs this year.
1. Neftali Feliz, P – Do you think the Braves regret the trade for Mark Teixeira? Feliz was a part of that deal, and now he looks like an ace in the making. He’s got a high-90s fastball that moves and sinks. He’s got an OK curve that works well because of his deceptive delivery – it looks like his fastball coming out of his hand. He’s got a change-up that he’s still working on and he’s got a 4th pitch that people can’t identify – it ranges from 2 seam fastball to cutter to faster version of his change up. He’ll be in the rotation this year.
2. Martin Perez, P – Perez took a giant step forward in 2009, even with the Rangers limiting his work. He’s very advanced for his age (he’ll be 20 this year) and pitched great against older talent. He’s got decent mechanics, but there are concerns about his arm action. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and could get faster as he matures. He’s got a sharp curve and a deceptively slow change-up. His command of his pitches are pretty good. I think he could see some bullpen time in a September call up.
3. Justin Smoak, 1B – Smoak could be a factor this year for the Rangers; he’s pretty much ready. His power was done last year due to an oblique injury. I think he’ll start the season in Triple A to prove that. He can hit for power and average, while providing league average defense at first. He’ll be a clean up hitter in his prime.
4. Tanner Scheppers, P – Scheppers was drafted by the Rangers in 2009, after he didn’t sign with the Pirates in 2008. He was coming off a stress fracture in his shoulder and a stint in the American Association, where he was attempting to prove he was healthy. He made his affiliated debut in the Arizona Fall League, where he was throwing his fastball between 94 and 96. He’s got a good slider and a change-up that needs a lot of work. Right now, he could be a mid-rotation starter, but I don’t see him as anything higher than a #2 starter.
5. Wilmer Font, P – Font is built like a future workhorse – 6’4”, 210 lbs – and he’s only 19. As he developes, he could add another couple of MPHs to his mid-90s fastball. He also has a curve and change-up, but needs to work on his command (4.90 BB/9). He gets a good amount of strikeouts and gives up few home runs; he also doesn’t keep the ball on the ground – something he’ll need to improve on. He’ll probably start out in Hi-A this year.
6. Michael Main, P – Main has the potential to be a front of the rotation starter, but there are a few concerns. First off, he’s not made ore than 16 starts in a season since he’s been drafted. 2009 was pretty much lost to serious viral infection. Secondly, he’s got 3 pitches that could be average; he’ll need to make those better to be a top of the line starter. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, his curve is pretty good, and his change-up needs some work. He could be used as a reliever based off the durability concerns and solid 2 pitches. 2010 is his chance to prove himself.
7. Kasey Kiker, P – Kiker had a strong 2009 in Double A, where he gave up less than a hit per inning and had 8.57 K/9, but also saw his BB/9 jump to 4.71. He’s got a solid mid-90s fastball, a plus change-up, and a good curve ball; a solid repertoire for a mid-rotation pitcher. He needs to work on his ground ball rate, especially pitching in Arlington, and his lefty/righty splits. He’ll spend this year in Triple A.
8. Danny Gutierrez, P – I put Gutierrez this high for his potential, which we saw flashes of in 2008. He’s got a low-90s fastball that has good movement and a plus curve. He could be a prefect closer of the future. He needs to prove that he can stay healthy and out of trouble for that to happen; he’s had 3 brushes with the law since the beginning of 2008. He’ll attempt to show that he’s matured after he serves a 50 game suspension for an ADD drug, which he has a prescription for that he didn’t report to the Rangers.
9. Mitch Moreland, OF – Moreland has come out of nowhere to become one of the better prospects in the system. The 17th round pick from 2007 split last year between Hi-A and Double A. He hits for average and had decent power for a corner outfielder. He doesn’t strike out much and makes good contact. He could have to move to first base, due to limited range in the outfield; his arm is very good though.
10. Max Ramirez, C – Ramirez is ready for the MLB, but the question is where? He won’t stick at catcher, because of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden ahead of him and because he’s not very good at the position. His future lies at first base, which is fine because his bat works there. He won’t hit for average, but he’s got tons of power. Ramirez has said he’s ready for the switch in positions, so he may spend a year in Triple A working on it.
15. San Francisco Giants
Pre-trade Ranking: 15
See the Rangers – lacking high profile guys outside of Posey and Bumgarner. I could see a few guys breaking out as well.
1. Buster Posey, C – Posey doesn’t have anything left to prove in the minors, but it appears that he could end up there again. There are people saying that he’ll split time with Bengie Molina, which means he’ll sit too much; the other rumor is that he’ll spend some time at other positions, which again isn’t good for him. Posey will hit in the Majors, once he is given the chance.
2. Madison Bumgarner, P –Bumgarner has lost a little of his prospect luster since he’s struggled a little bit as he’s been promoted. His ERA hasn’t shown this, but his secondary stats have. His K-Rate is down to 5.80 per 9 innings. He’s also lost some velocity since he’s been drafted. He could be the 5th starter this year for the Giants, but I think he needs a little time at Triple A.
3. Zach Wheeler, P – Wheeler has a lot of potential. He’s got a low-90s fastball with movement that could add a couple MPHs as he develops. His curveball is already a plus pitch. He’s working on a slider that could push him to a front of the rotation starter. There are some issues with his delivery; the Giants have had recent success with pitchers, so I don’t see that changing here.
4. Thomas Neal, OF – Neal has progressed well with each promotion. He’s very patient and has reduced his strikeouts, although it’s still a little high. His power is well suited for a corner outfielder. He’s a capable defensive corner outfielder and had the arm to play right. He could get a look in September; he could be up earlier if the major league corners are not playing well and Neal is killing the ball in Triple A.
5. Roger Kieschnick, OF – Kieschnick have only one pro season under his belt, but it was a promising one. He doesn’t walk much and strikes out too much, but he’s got time to improve that. He’s got average speed, but uses it well. He’s also got great power. He fields very well and has the arm for right field.
6. Tommy Joseph, C – Joseph has raw potential to be a great player. It’s the rest of his game that raises questions. He’s got holes in his swing and can be very inconsistent. He needs to work on his plate discipline. He’s also a questionable receiver; his catching needs a lot of work and it looks like a move to first base could be in his future.
7. Francisco Peguero, OF – Peguero is a promising prospect, but he’s got a lot of work to do. He goes all out, which means he doesn’t walk much (2.0 BB%) and has questionable plate discipline. He did hit in his major league debut. He’s also got great speed and could steal 45 bases in the majors. He’s got the potential to be a MLB center fielder, but really needs to work at the plate.
8. Nick Noonan, 2B – Noonan isn’t a prospect that will wow you, but he’s got good skills across the board. His 2009 was down, but he finished the season well. He had more walks than strikeouts as we worked on his plate discipline. He’s very good defensively and there is no question that he’ll be a second baseman if he can make it to the big leagues.
9. Rafael Rodriguez, OF – Rodriguez has a strong US debut, showing good discipline and raw tools. He’ll join a full season league this year and we’ll see how he handles the longer season. He can make good contact and his power should be developing soon. The jury is still out on his defense though.
10. Waldis Joaquin, P – Joaquin has a great arm, but it’s projected as an arm out of the bullpen. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and tops out at 96. He’s got a good slider, but needs to work on the command of it. It’s very promising that lefties can hit him, but he needs to work on his walks if he wants to be a late inning guy.
16. Oakland Athletics
Pre-trade Ranking: 29
They have Carter and Taylor as their only elite prospects. Green is close. Outside of that, they don’t have a lot to show from drafts and trades of Huston Street, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, etc. They are also hurt by graduating a lot of players last year.
1. Chris Carter, 1B – Carter was the top bat in the A’s system last year. He hit for average, power, and was able to get on base. He does strike out a little too much, but he’s a hitting first baseman. He finished last season at Triple A, so I think he could make a jump to the Majors this spring, although I expect that he’ll start the season in Triple A so his service clock won’t start. Daric Barton won’t hold him back.
2. Michael Taylor, OF – Taylor was the top bat for the Phillies and, shortly, the Blue Jays before landing with the Athletics. He’s got decent power and can hit for average. He’s very patient. He’s also ready for the majors and I think he’ll start in Oakland
3. Grant Green, SS – It may be a little early to rank Green this high, but his small sample in Hi-A looked pretty good. He’s got little upside other than what we’ve seen. He’ll probably start in Hi-A, but will probably move quickly if he continue to hits.
4. Tyson Ross, P – Ross is a groundball machine who gives up a few too many homers – a very rare feat. He’s got a mid-90s sinking fastball, but needs to develop secondary pitches. His K rate has decreased as he advanced, which could be a concern. If he can get command of off speed stuff, he’ll be a good mid-rotation starter.
5. Adrian Cardenas, 2B – Cardenas is a good fielder, but I think he’s got a little more work to do on offense. He’s got a decent average (.299 between Double A and Triple A). He needs to work on his base running, as he was caught stealing 6 times in 14 chances. He won’t hit for much power.
6. Max Stassi, C – Stassi was a surprise draft pick to those who think Billy Beane doesn’t like high school draftee (which is a Moneyball myth). He’s got the defensive ability to stick at catcher; he’s got an average arm and receives well. His bat is a work in progress, but he’s consistent. If he’s a decent hitter, he could be a nice addition to the A’s in the future.
7. Jemile Weeks, 2B – Weeks looks like he could have an interesting power/speed combo, but he still has a lot of work to do. First off, he was bit by the injury bug which affected his development. Next, he needs to work on his righty/lefty splits; lefties killed him last year. He won’t make it as a platoon player. Finally, he’s got the ability to stay at second, but he’s been considered careless in the field. He’ll need to focus to succeed with Oakland.
8. Sean Doolittle, 1B – Doolittle came into the A’s system as a first baseman with incredible upside. Since then, he’s been having an issue with staying healthy. I think his health has affected his power. If he can stay healthy this year, I think his power will start to show up. Defensively, he’s nothing special; I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a left fielder in a year or 2.
9. Josh Donaldson, C – Donaldson looks like a new hitter since he’s joined the Athletic Organization. He’s jumped up to Triple A last year and his numbers didn’t fall too much. He’s a line drive hitter with OK power. He walks a bit, but also strikes out a lot. He’s made progress as a catcher and has a pretty good arm; he threw out 40% of base runners last year.
10. Clayton Mortensen, P – I was sad to see Mortensen traded to the A’s for Matt Holliday. He was moved too fast through the Cardinals system, which has affected him. He’s got a standard fastball, a great sinker, a good change-up, and a weak slider – a nice arsenal for a starter. The sinker/change combo will induce a lot of groundballs, but he won’t strike out a ton. He’s easily a back of the rotation pitcher that could be as good as a #3.
17. Seattle Mariners
Pre-trade Ranking: 16
The talent level in this system took a small hit when they traded Carlos Lee, but none of the guys traded cracked the Top 100. There are some definite question marks, but there is some upside too.
1. Dustin Ackley, 2B – Ackley is seen as the complete package. He made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit for average and got on base frequently; he didn’t hit for power. Scouts aren’t worried though because the power will come. He’s going to try at second this year, but his future will most likely be in centerfield.
2. Carlos Triunfel, SS – A year ago, Triunfel was the man in the Mariners system; he then lost the year to a leg injury and people are down on him. He’s a good hitter with pretty good speed and OK power. He doesn’t strike out much, but he doesn’t draw walks either. He’s raw, but should be able to return to his previous level if he stays healthy. His glove is solid enough that he can stick at short.
3. Michael Saunders, OF – Saunders struggle in his MLB call up, but don’t expect that over the course of his career. Saunders shows decent power, good contact, and good speed. If he’s works on his base running, he could steal 20-30 homers; a 30/30 season is a possibility (it’s more a question of power though). He’ll probably start the season in Triple A until someone gets hurt.
4. Alex Liddi, 3B – Liddi has shot up the Mariners rankings after a strong season that saw his average go up .100 and his homers go up by 17. Some are questioning the validity of the jump; was it a fluke? I’m venturing to guess that they are not a fluke; he drew more walks and cut down on his strikeouts. The ballpark may have had an effect, but not that much. His defense is horrible; he’ll probably end up in the outfield, which could hurt his ranking.
5. Gabriel Noriega, SS – Noriega is a raw prospect that made his debut in rookie ball in 2009. He can hit and has great speed, but it looks like he won’t have much power (at least nothing more than doubles power). He strikes out a lot, but that should improve with more playing time. He’s an excellent fielder and his glove can get him to the big league.
6. Michael Pineda, P – Pineda current has 3 decent pitches. His fast ball sits in the low-90s with good sinking action; he doesn’t have great control though. His slider looks more like a cutter, but he can throw it for strikes against righties and lefties. He’s got a good change-up due to a deceptive delivery. He’s got a lot of potential, but there is a great concern over his mechanics; he’s going to probably blow out his elbow in the future.
7. Adam Moore, C – Moore is a solid catcher, but doesn’t have tools that get the scouts raving. He will have a good batting average, shows average power, and makes good contact. He has an above average arm behind the plate; his other skills are catching up to his arm. He’ll be the starter for the Mariners and will hold his own; he’s a better option than overpaying for Jason Kendall.
8. Dan Cortes, P – Cortes was stolen from the Royals for Yuniesky Betancourt, and the Royals will regret this deal. Yes, Cortes had some off the field issues while having a down season, but he’s still a pretty good prospect. He’s got a mid-90s fastball, a solid curve, and a decent slider. His problem is control and maturity.
9. Nick Franklin, SS – Franklin’s bat isn’t what will get him to the big league – it’ll be his glove. He knows how to field the position and has a plus arm. His bat is weak, but not horrible. He’s a switch hitter who makes good contact. His power will be below average, but that’s not needed at shortstop.
10. Rich Pythress, 1B – Poythress is the prototypical first baseman; average defense, great power, good contract, bad speed. Poythress has great power and plate discipline. His problem, which will probably be exposed at the upper minors, is his slow bat speed; a good fastball could cause quite a few strikeouts. If he can fix this, he’ll be a fast mover.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pre-trade Ranking: 10
This is another system that has graduated a few players in the last couple of years. They had a solid draft in ’09 and could have a few guys that move up in status. They normally draft well, so they could be back in the top half next year.
1. Brandon Allen, 1B – Here’s your prototypical first baseman – tons of power and can get on base. He won’t hurt you at the position. He’s got the potential to end up an All Star.
2. Jarrod Parker, P – Parker’s Tommy John surgery knocks him down a spot; I expect that he’ll return to form when he recovers (2011). He’s got a great fastball and slider, with a developing curve and change-up.
3. Bobby Borchering, 3B – He’s got tons of potential with the bat, but he’ll end up at first or in left field. He’s a switch hitter that shows power from both sides of the plate. If he develops in his first full season in the pros, he could be a fast mover.
4. Ryan Wheeler, 1B – He’s almost as good as Borchering, but lacks the eye that his fellow draft-mate has. I see him being in the Carlos Pena mold, but many scouts like him more.
5. David Nick, 2B – He’s got good power, speed, contact, and patience for the position, but he’s still young. His defense is good enough to stick at the position. If he continues to develop, he’s got the potential to be very good.
6. Wade Miley, P – While his fastball is a decent pitch, Miley’s breaking ball is his bread and butter. He keeps the ball down in the zone, so he has good groundball rates. He’s got good rates, but need to cut down on his hits if he wants to succeed.
7. A.J. Pollock, OF – Pollock was getting a lot of acclaim on other lists, but he lacks power and plate discipline to be a top player. He does have good contact and speed. His power appears to be more for gap hitting. If he could be a good centerfielder, he’d fit the profile. I don’t see it happening.
8. Chris Owings, SS – Owings has the tools to be good, but there are questions about his defense. He’ll probably end up at second. He will need to work on his discipline to really set himself apart from the rest of the system.
9. Marc Krauss, OF – He’s polished college hitter that has the potential to move quickly. He can do everything, but none of his stills are consider to be plus. He’s got 4th outfielder written all over him.
10. Cole Gillespie, OF – See Krauss – he’s got good skills, but no exceptional skills. I could see him as a solid 4th outfielder as well.
19. Colorado Rockies
Pre-trade Ranking: 17
The system is doing pretty well with pitching, but they are lacking an elite hitter. If they can get 1 or 2 solid fielders in the draft, they could have a strong system again.
1. Jhoulys Chacin, P – Chacin is a groundball machine, which makes him a perfect fit in Colorado. He’s didn’t look very well in his brief call up last year. I think he’ll see some rotation time this year, but will benefit by starting the season in Triple A.
2. Tyler Matzek, P – Matzek is ranked high purely on potential. He has four pitches that will be at least average. He’s got control issues, but he’s young and can fly through the organization once he gets control. He could be a 2-3 starter.
3. Christian Friedrich, P – Friedrich has been perfect since he was projected as an early first round pick and drop to the bottom of the round in 2008. He’s got four good pitches, led by an incredible curve. To move to the next level, he’ll need to fine tune his command. I expect him to be another 2-3 starter.
4. Rex Brothers, P – Brothers is another solid pitcher. There are concerns with having more than 2 pitches and his endurance. At this point, he looks like a solid bullpen arm; worst case scenario is a LOOGY.
5. Juan Nicasio, P – Nicasio has a great arm, which he showed during his stay in Asheville. He was old for the level, so he’ll need to move up quickly to get on track. I expect him to be a back of the rotation starter.
6. Esmil Rogers, P – Another live arm. He saw 4 innings with Colorado last year; he didn’t do horrible, but his Triple A numbers were. He’ll need to work on stretching out more (he average 6.1 innings in Double A), or he may move to the bullpen.
7. Eric Young Jr, 2B – Young is still raw at second base; he’s got to work on his defense. He’s got great speed though, and isn’t afraid to steal a base. He’s seen a little time in the outfield, but probably won’t be able to crack the Rockies line up there. He’s probably going to be up in Denver this year.
8. Wilin Rosario, C – Many see Rosario’s 2009 as a disappointment, but you have to remember that he was young for his level. He’ll probably repeat and hopefully improve. He’ll need to work on both offense and defense to elevate his game.
9. Sam Deduno, P – Deduno has a chance to breakout this year if he can prove he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery. He’s at the last stage, where he’s looking for his command. If it comes back, he’ll move quickly.
10. Hector Gomez, SS – Gomez is an all fielding, no hitting prospect. He’s young, so he can still work on his bat. If he can at least work on his strike zone judgment, he’ll be a worth-while prospect at short. This is a make or break year.
20. St. Louis Cardinals
Pre-trade Ranking: 12
This system has probably dropped the most in the last year since they traded for Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa. They’ve had some decent drafts since Jeff Luhnow took over the minor league system. I’d expect them to sign another high profile draftee this year.
1. Shelby Miller, P – After the season, I ranked the top 7 prospects Cardinal prospects for the UCB, and I had Miller second. Well, having time to think about it and seeing his throwing sessions in Spring Training, I have decided he’s the top guy right now. He’s got a fastball that will end up in the mid-90s once he matures, a curve that could be a plus pitch, and great mechanics. He could be top of the rotation when all is said and done.
2. Jaime Garcia, P – I also didn’t have Garcia as 2; since he’s proven he’s healthy and taking the 5th rotation spot, he’s moved up. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, but he’s got a great sinker. His curve ball hasn’t lost anything. He’ll be a nice addition to the rotation this year.
3. Daryl Jones, OF – Jones was drafted as a toolsy outfielder that needed to translate those to skills. He broke out in 2008, but pretty much lost 2009 to injuries. His power still hasn’t developed and he needs to work on his pitch recognition. He has improved on his plate discipline and his speed is still good. He looks more like a corner outfielder at this time, but his power will need to come to be one.
4. Allen Craig, 3B/OF – Craig has hit at every level he’s played at. He’s got good power and decent contact ability. He can take walks, but doesn’t have a great on base percentage. He’s a man with out a position, because his defense at third is a little below average. He’s spent some time at first and left field. He looks like a corner back up right now, with the ability to be an everyday left fielder in the future.
5. Lance Lynn, P – Lynn’s calling card is his control; he won’t blow people away with this fastball, but he’s got 4 good pitches. He keeps the ball down, with a groundball rate at almost 50% and only 5 homers allowed in 2009. He won’t strike out a ton, so he’s limited to a mid-rotation guy.
6. David Freese, 3B – Freese is the third baseman in St. Louis barring injury or major struggles. He broke out in 2008 and had a chance to be the starter in 2009 until he revealed he had a car accident injury prior to spring training. He ended up going back to Triple A and had another strong season. His power has come along nicely, but his strike outs have increased as well. He’s a good defender with limited range.
7. Robert Stock, C – Stock has the ability to catch or pitch. He’s attempting to catch right now, which has looked promising. His bat look solid, but that was based off playing in the Rookie League. He’s got a great eye and plus power. His catching skills are still developing, but there is no reason to believe that he can’t be a major league catcher. When pitching, his fast ball can hit 96, with the possibility that it could add a couple of ticks down the line. I haven’t been able to find anything about his secondary pitches though.
8. Eduardo Sanchez, P – Sanchez put up some good numbers at Double A that started rumors of a late season call up. He’s was able to get a lot of strikeouts (10% of his outs) and groundballs (50% rate). He can get righties and lefties out. His control is still shaky at times, but it’s improved a lot in the last year. He’ll start the year in Triple A, but don’t be surprised to see him this year.
9. Jon Jay, OF – I think I’m higher on Jay than most people. He’s a guy that does a lot, but doesn’t stand out at anything. He’s got good speed and plate discipline, but his power won’t be much more than doubles power; double digit homers are possible, but I’d say no more than 15 in a season. He’s great defensively and can play all 3 outfield positions, which makes him look more like a 4th outfielder than a corner guy, which is where he’d play with the Cardinals.
10. Bryan Anderson, C – People are very down on Anderson, since he hasn’t shown the power that he hinted at in the low minors. They need to remember he’s only 22. Anderson is a very patient hitter who’s not afraid to draw a walk. His strikeout numbers were the highest of his career, but that could be due to battling injuries. His catching is still a work in progress, but he’s improved each year. He could still be an above average catcher, but probably for a different organization.
21. San Diego Padres
Pre-trade Ranking: 20
They’re in rebuilding mold, but they need to rebuild the whole system. They have a couple of solid guys, but they need to do more. Hopefully the new ownership and front office will turn things around.
1. Donovan Tate, OF – Tate was a much hyped High Schooler coming into last years draft; the result was the highest bonus signed by a HSer ($6.15MM). Tate was drafted with 3 plus tools (power, speed, arm); some say he could be a 30/30 player right off the bat. The problem is his approach to hitting; he’s got a long swing that makes it hard to catch up to fast balls. He hasn’t seen a professional pitch yet, but there should be little to worry about here.
2. Jaff Decker, OF – Decker’s strong season has caught a lot of attention, as has his body. He draws comparisons to Matt Stairs and John Kruk for body and potential. He’s got a lot of power, he’s patient, but he also strikes out a quarter of the time. We’ll see how he progresses, since he’s only 19. If he can keep from getting too big, he’ll have a nice career.
3. Simon Castro, P – Castro had a great season in Lo-A ball this past year; he put up great strike out numbers (10.07 K/9) and walk numbers (2.37 BB/9). He’s got a big frame (6’5” 200 lbs) and there are concerns that he’ll get too big. There are also concerns that he has a low groundball rate, which will only make a difference if he pitches away from San Diego.
4. James Darnell, 3B – Darnell split time between Lo-A and Hi-A and improved with the promotion. He won’t be a guy that has a high average, but his power will be his calling card. He’s also very patient and doesn’t strike out much. He’s very athletic, so he could move to second base if needed to.
5. Aaron Poreda, P – This lefty has come back to earth after being the key player in the Jake Peavy deal with the White Sox. He’s got a good, mid-90s fastball, but does struggle with location of it occasionally. This had led him to taking a little off the pitch to control it better. He doesn’t have secondary pitches, which means he could move to the bullpen. If that happens, he’s got the chance to be a closer if he can find 1 pitch to complement the fastball.
6. Wynn Pelzer, P – Pelzer had good season that saw him post respectable numbers. He gets a lot of groundballs and keeps his home run numbers down, which will be good on the road if he pitches for the Padres. He’s working on a change-up to be his third pitch, which is promising since he’s got pretty good control. The main concern is the struggles against lefties, which could reduce him to a bullpen arm.
7. Cesar Carrillo, P – Carrillo was once a top prospect in the system, but injuries have really derailed his career. He was able to stay healthy in 2009 and saw a little time with the major league club. He has a high-90s fastball, a low-90s sinking fastball, a change-up, and a curve. He could see some major league time this year as well, but the Padres are hoping for better results.
8. Logan Forsythe, 3B – Forsythe split 2009 between Hi-A and Double A; he started great at the lower level, and then struggled with the promotion. He saw his power drop and his strikeouts go up with the move, which is the most worrisome part. He’ll hit for high average and can take a walk. He could also become a platoon player since he hit lefties better than righties. His glove is solid enough to handle the position.
9. Kellen Kulbacki, OF – Kulbacki draws a lot of comparisons to former-Padre Brian Giles. He has a compact lefty swing that generates some power. He’s projected to have 20-25 homers and hits to all parts of the field. He’s not very speed and will probably be a left fielder in the long run. The main question is whether he can stay healthy after missing pretty much all of last year.
10. Adys Portillo, P – This 18 year old projects to be a front of the rotation starter, even with poor numbers in his debut at Rookie ball. He’s got a fast ball that currently tops out a 94, but the Padres expect that he’ll get a few extra MPHs as he matures. His struggles were tied to his lack of a secondary pitch. He has a lot of time to develop and could jump up with a strong season.
22. Houston Astros
Pre-trade Ranking: 21
They’ve made strides over the last 2 years, but they still have a lot of work to do. As we mentioned in the Astros Roundtable, they have a few trade candidates that could bring some prospects in.
1. Jason Castro, C – I thought Castro was a reach when they drafted him; they probably could have gotten him in the second round. He’s proved to be worth the pick though. He’s advanced quickly and could be the starting catcher at some point this year.
2. Jordan Lyles, P – Lyles is an ace in the making. He’s got a mid-90s fast ball that moves. He’s working on a curve and change-up that could be above average secondary pitches. If he can get one of those 2 to complement his fastball, he’ll be a solid pitcher. I wouldn’t expect him until the end of the 2011 season, at the earliest.
3. Jiovanni Mier, SS – There is no doubt that Mier’s glove will allow him to stick at short. He’s got an advanced bat, which should have decent power when he’s done maturing. He’s also got good speed. He’s another one to watch for at the end of 2011.
4. Sammy Gervacio, P – Gervacio was the reason that Houston didn’t want to commit to a multi-year deal for Jose Valverde. He’s got 2 good pitches (a fastball and a slider), which is all he needs in relief. Look for him to get his feet wet this year.
5. Ross Seaton, P – Seaton has very good control, but his fastball definitely needs some work. If he could get a little movement to it, it’ll be a great pitch. He’s got time to develop into a quality starter; right now I’d say he’s back of the rotation.
6. Tanner Bushue, P – Bushue recently switched to pitching full time, so he’s going to be a little bit of a project. He needs to develop secondary pitches. The other concern is his injury history – while no injury has been serious, they tend to nag. We’ll see how he does in a full season league.
7. Jonathan Gaston, OF – Gaston took a step forward this past season, but there are still a lot of concerns. He’s one of those guys that will hit a homer or strike out. He also broke out in a hitter’s league. I see him as a Matt Stairs type player – useful, but not unique.
8. Chia-Jen Lo, P – Lo is a reliever with a live arm. He’s working on a curve and change as a secondary pitch, and his fastball lacks accuracy at times. Until he fixes both, he may not see much success.
9. Jay Austin, OF – Austin appears to be another version of Mike Bourn or Wily Taveras; no power but good speed. It’ll be interesting to see how his raw bat develops; will he be able to get on base like Bourn or be a bust like Taveras.
10. Brad Dydalewicz, P – Dydalewicz has a good sinking fastball that induces groundballs. This also means that he doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters. There are plenty of successful pitchers in this mold, but none were ever considered top prospects. He’ll be an end of the rotation starter.
23. Baltimore Orioles
Pre-trade Ranking: 26
They were solid last year, and still have Matusz in this system. They could be hurting next year when he’s no longer a rookie. They have a couple sleepers in their system, but it’s looking a little bare.
1. Brian Matusz, P – Matusz is one of the top pitching prospects in the game. He’s got 4 plus pitches and a little major league experience. Look for him to become of the next generation stars.
2. Josh Bell, 3B – Bell is easily the top hitters in the system. He’s got above average power and a great batting eye. His defense also matches with his hitting. Look for him to possibly replace Miguel Tejada if/when he’s traded.
3. Brandon Erbe, P – One of the trends you’ll see if that Oriole starters need to work on their third pitches; Erbe is in this group. He’s got a great fastball and slider, but needs to work on his change up. He could see some time out of the bullpen, if the Orioles need the help.
4. Jake Arrieta, P – Arrieta struggle in Double A last year, but it was mainly due to working on his weaker pitches. If he can improve his change up, he’ll be a much better pitcher; he’s already got a strong fastball and slider, plus a decent curve.
5. Zach Britton, P – Britton’s not a power pitcher, as he relies on his sinker and his slider. His ground ball rate is good. If he can develop his change up, he’ll move up in the rankings. He could be an emergency start for the Orioles, if there are some health issues in the rotation.
6. Brandon Snyder, 1B – Snyder doesn’t profile as a typical first baseman, as he doesn’t have much power (a la Lyle Overbay). The former catcher is starting to become average at first, but hit bat profiles a little better in the outfield; I don’t know if he could make the change though.
7. Kam Mickolio, P – Mickolio was a throw in on the Erik Bedard deal who looks like he’s going to end up in the bullpen. His fastball and slider are borderline above average, so he could be very successful. He’ll get a shot this season to establish himself.
8. Caleb Joseph, C – Joseph is an athletic catcher that is getting better the more he plays. He’s had issues in the past with pitch calling, so if he doesn’t progress more, he’ll be looking for a new position. He’s a contact hitter with above average power.
9. Mychal Givens, SS – Givens is a defense first shortstop; he’s got the arm, range and speed to be great at the position. His bat is still a work in progress as he’s still filling out. He’s projected to have average power for the position.
10. L.J. Hoes, 2B – Hoes is a good athlete that’s trying to be a good baseball player. He’s learning second, so his defense isn’t quite up to par yet. He’s got great speed, good plate discipline, and top notch speed. He could be a sleeper in the system.
24. Toronto Blue Jays
Pre-trade Ranking: 30
J.P. Riccardi did a number on this system. He could have gotten a good package for Halladay mid-season, but they had to settle for less. Of course, they got 2 top 30 prospects in the end; those are their only 2 elite prospects.
1. Brett Wallace, 1B – The Blue Jays drafted Wallace out of high school in 2005, but he passed to play at Arizona State. He’s ended up in Toronto after he was traded for Michael Taylor. Wallace will fit well, as Lyle Overbay is in his last year of his contract and Wallace is a better profile for first base. He can hit for power and decent average. He can take a walk and doesn’t strike out a lot, like most first basemen. He was a third baseman in college, but scout don’t like his body for the position; he’s built like Jim Thome, who also started at third before his move to first.
2. Kyle Drabek, P – Drabek, son of former big leaguer Doug Drabek, is close to being ready. He’s got a mid-90s fastball and a top notch curve. He’s also working on a change up that could be an above average offering. He’s a Tommy John survivor and has shown no issues with control. His main concern right now is building up his durability. If he can have a strong showing in the minors and be healthy, he’ll be up by September.
3. Zach Stewart, P – There are questions about Stewart’s role in the Majors – starter or reliever. He’s got 3 pitches (low-90s fastball, slider, change-up) that are all average, with the change being the weakest of the 3. He needs to work on control a bit, as he’s looked shaky with each promotion last year. His K-rate did improve with each move though (6.80 to 7.54 to 10.52). He’s a groundball pitcher, which makes him a valuable starter, possibly a #3 man.
4. Travis D’Arnaud, C – D’Arnaud had a good year at Lo-A in 2009. His batting average was a little low, but it due to bad luck (.279 BABIP vs .255 BA). He’s got a solid approach and good walk and strikeout rates; those could change as he climbs through the minors. He’s solid defensively, but needs to work on getting base runners out (23% thrown out last year). He’s got time to work on that, as he won’t be ready for at least 2 years.
5. Chad Jenkins, P – Jenkins, drafted in 2009, is big framed pitcher that doesn’t have a fire-ball arm. His fast ball sits around 90, but had good sink to it. His other pitches are solid as well (slider and change-up). He’s got the endurance to eat innings and gets groundballs. He’ll end up a #3 starter at best. He’ll make his pro debut this year, most likely at Hi-A.
6. Brad Mills, P – Mills won’t blow you away, but he’s got the pitches to be a back of the rotation starter. His fastball tops out at 90 and normally sits in the high-80s. He’s got a plus change-up and an average curveball. He made 2 starts for the Blue Jays in 2009, and neither were amazing. He looked like he didn’t have confidence in his fastball and curve, which caused him to lose control of them. He’ll need to work on that before he’ll get another shot.
7. David Cooper, 1B – Cooper had a down year, as he couldn’t hit for average or power in Double A. He can make contact and take a pitch, but he doesn’t look like he could push Brett Wallace out of the way for the first base job. Some scouts compare him to Lyle Overbay for his approach and limited power. He’ll probably top out at Triple A this year, with a possible MLB debut in September.
8. Josh Roenicke, P – This is his make or break year, as he’s 27 and almost too old for a prospect. He’s got closer stuff – a high-90s fastball and great slider – and should be a regular in the bullpen. He gets strike outs, but has had control problems in the past. He’s not a groundball pitcher, so he could be prone to give up a couple of homers. I expect that he’ll be up with the Jays all season.
9. Brad Emaus, 2B – Emaus has good tools, but none that stick out as great. He can hit for decent power and average, he’s can swipe a few bases, and has good plate discipline. He saw a slight decline in his stats as he moved up to Double A, but his BABIP dropped which may have been bad luck. His defense is at least average, so he’ll be a solid major leaguer when he’s ready. He’ll start the season in Double A and should be up with Triple A by the end of the year.
10. J.P. Arencibia, C – Arencibia is going to have to work to be the catcher for Toronto. He’s stalled in Triple A this past year, as his bat took the year off (.236/.284/.444). He’s capable of hitting for good power, but needs to lower his strikeouts and increase his walks. Part of his 2009 problems were a kidney issue and astigmatism; both problems resulted in off-season surgery. His defense has improved, but he’ll be nothing more than an average defensive catcher. That makes his bat that much more important; if he improves this year, he could be catching in Canada in 2011.
25. Chicago Cubs
Pre-trade Ranking: 23
If it wasn’t for Stalin Castro, they’d look weak. Vitters could go either way still. They do have some young guys that could progress to elite status, but they have a long way to go.
1. Starlin Castro, SS – Castro is easily the top prospect in the system. He’s got offense and defense. I could see him being up by the end of the season.
2. Josh Vitters, 3B – While some are worried about Vitter’s struggled, but he’s still young and will bounce back. He doesn’t walk much, but he doesn’t strikeout much either.
3. Hak-Ju Lee, SS – Lee is probably as good as Castro, but he won’t be able to see much time at short if Castro establishes himself. He could easily make the switch to second. He’s fast and gets on base; he’d be the perfect lead off hitter.
4. Brett Jackson, OF – Jackson has performed very well at the low levels and has the tools to produce at the higher ones. His power is coming around and speed is better than advertised.
5. Andrew Cashner, P – Cashner has the opportunity to take the final bullpen spot with a strong spring. He’s got 2 strong pitches, but needs to work on his command and endurance to be a starter. I see him being a solid bullpen arm.
6. Jay Jackson, P – Like Cashner, he’s got 2 good pitches and needs to develop a third to be in the rotation. He does have the endurance though, so he’s got a solid opportunity to be a starter.
7. Chris Carpenter, P – Carpenter has the opportunity to be a solid pitcher, but there are serious questions about his health and command. He’s got the potential to be a mid-rotation starter.
8. Ryan Flaherty, 2B – He often gets overlooked because of Castro and Lee, but he projects to be a solid infielder. He’ll probably not get an opportunity to see the Cubs infield, but he should get something nice for them on the trade market.
9. Kyler Burke, OF – Burke has a little bit of everything as far as skills. He’s a little bit old for Single A last season, but if he can move quickly, he’ll have a solid career.
10. Esmailin Caridad, P – Caridad got a little major league exposure in the Cubs bullpen, which is where he’ll probably become a fixture.
26. Milwaukee Brewers
Pre-trade Ranking: 24
The Brewers’ system is in a downturn after trying to make some trades to compete. They have a good track record in the last decade of bringing guys through the system, so they should be fine in the long run.
1. Alcides Escobar, SS – The Brewers handed the starting shortstop job to Escobar this spring by trading off J.J. Hardy. Escobar is a defensive whiz who can hit a little. He has no power, but has speed to swipe a few bases. He’ll probably hit in the .290 range eventually; this year could be tough though.
2. Brett Lawrie, 2B – Lawrie’s got a great bat, which is good since he really doesn’t have a position. Many think he won’t stick at second and could end up in the outfield. While he’ll be a good hitter, that will hurt his value. If he can maybe play third base, his value shouldn’t be hurt too much.
3. Mat Gamel, 3B – Gamel did ok in his major league trail, but lost out to fellow rookie Casey McGehee. There were rumors over the winter that the Brewers would be willing to trade Gamel and let McGehee hold down third on his own (which would have been a mistake). Gamel may not stay at third due to defense, but would be a quality corner outfielder.
4. Eric Arnett, P – Arnett is one of those pitchers with a power sinker; he gets a lot of groundballs and strike outs – a rare combination. If his control can improve, he’s got the potential to top out as a #3 starter.
5. Jonathan Lucroy, C – Lucroy is probably the catcher of the future for the Brewers. He’s got good power that has the potential to be top notch for the position. He walks more than he strikes out. His defensive skills are coming along, so he probably won’t move off the position.
6. Jake Odorizzi, P – Odorizzi is someone I’ve followed since he pitched for a high school right outside of St. Louis. He’s got a nice arsenal of pitches and has been handled carefully. He’s got the potential to be a 2-3 starter if everything goes right.
7. Kentrail Davis, OF – Davis is a high upside outfield prospect. He’s been handled carefully as well, so it’s hard to really say what he could do. Look for him in Lo A this year.
8. Cody Scarpetta, P – Scarpetta is a sleeper in the organization. He’s got a good sinking fastball and a nasty curve. He’s working on a change-up that could really give him an advantage. If he can harness his control issues, he’s got the potential to be a mid-rotation starter.
9. Zach Braddock, P – Braddock is a power lefty that has a good fastball and a killer slider. He’s had injury and durability questions, so it looks like the bullpen is his future. He can range from a LOOGY to closer, depending on his control.
10. Josh Butler, P – Bulter is another arm that looks better out of the pen. He gets groundballs and has a strikeout to walk rate that is better than 2-1. He has less than a K per inning, but that may increase when he’s in the bullpen.
27. Los Angeles Angels
Pre-trade Ranking: 25
I don’t think the system is a high priority for the Angels; they can spend to bring big names in. They don’t mind giving up draft picks, but they’ll need to draft a little stronger to make up for lack of picks.
1. Trevor Reckling, P – Reckling has 3 solid pitches and is working on a fourth. His fastball doesn’t have much velocity, but has movement. He’s got a power curve and a plus change-up. He’s got a useable slider that’s still a work in progress. If he continues to build on his previous success, he’ll be a 2-4 starter.
2. Mike Trout, OF – Trout is a hard working prospect. He’s currently a good contact hitter, but there are questions about his power potential based off his swing. He’s patient, but needs to lower the strikeouts a little; this will happen as he advances and works on his pitch recognition. If he puts it together, he could be one of the top OF prospects in baseball next year.
3. Hank Conger, C – Conger has made significant strides over the last year. The main factor was him staying healthy, which is huge. The result was improved discipline and defense. There are still questions about whether he can stick at catcher; he loses some appeal if he has to change positions.
4. Peter Bourjos, OF – Bourjos’ calling card is his speed; he’s one of the fastest players in the Angels system. He’s improved his plate discipline, but still need to take some more walks if he wants to be a lead off hitter. He could be a September call up if all goes right.
5. Garrett Richards, P – Richards has incredible stuff, which puts him in an interesting position – a good season will put him one everyone’s lists. Of course, he’s got the questions that can hamper his progress, namely his command. He’s got the potential for ace status, but could easily stop developing and become a middle reliever.
6. Randal Grichuck, OF – I’ve seen reports ranging from the best swing ever to too many holes in his swing. I’m somewhere in the middle on him. He’s got a lot of upside. His main issue right now is plate discipline; if he can get a little more control of the strike zone, he’ll be a good hitter.
7. Trevor Bell, P – Bell is a pitcher that has decent stuff and great control. He’s ready and could get his feet wet in the bullpen this year; he did see some major league time last year, but didn’t look well. He’s got the potential to be a #5 starter.
8. Jordan Walden, P – Walden has the potential to move up the list if he could stay healthy. He’s got 4 pitches, although he’s working on command of his slider and the development of his change-up. He has questionable mechanics, so it’s very possible that injuries are permanent.
9. Michael Kohn, P – Kohn is a solid reliever. He spent the past season in both levels of A-ball, and dominated both leagues (103 Ks in 65 1/3 IP). Since he’s a reliever, he should move quickly and could be part of the bullpen next year.
10. Alexi Amarista, 2B – Amarista is a small second baseman, but he’s young. He’s profiling more as a utility player, but he’s great on defense. He’s got the ability to play both middle infield positions. If he can develop anything with the bat, he’ll be able to stick in the line up.
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pre-trade Ranking: 28
You would think that since they’ve traded veterans, they’d have a better system. I still think Jose Tabata could be a worth while player, but they only have 1 elite prospect (Alvarez).
1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B – Alvarez is a true power threat, which the Pirates have been missing. He’s got a nice swing and his eye has gotten better in the minors; the results have shown in a lower K rate. His defense is a question mark, as many scouts are saying he’ll end up at first base. At either position, Alvarez is a top prospect.
2. Brad Lincoln, P – Lincoln was questioned about his durability after he missed time having Tommy John surgery, but people aren’t questioning him now. He’s got a power fast ball and an incredible curve ball. He’s a #2 in the making.
3. Jose Tabata, OF – Tabata was once a gem in the Yankees system, but they gave up on him due to his effort and questions about his age. Many still question if he’s older than 21. Tabata has questionable power, but could hit into the mid-20s for home runs if it continues to develop. He could be up this year if everything works in Triple A.
4. Tony Sanchez, C – Many questioned the Pirates front office with using a high pick on Sanchez; the pick was seen as them going cheap, as they did with the old management group (Bryan Bullington shouldn’t have gone #1). Sanchez responded by having a great season. His bat was better than advertised, while his defense didn’t live up to the reputation. He’s got a great attitude and work ethic, so don’t be surprise to see him improve behind the plate.
5. Tim Alderson, P – Prior to being traded to the Pirates, scouts were questioning Alderson’s mechanics and drop in velocity. Those questions didn’t go away. If Alderson, lives up to potential he’s a #2 starter. If the Pirates can’t get him straightened out, they are looking at a #5 at best.
6. Chase D’arnaud, 2B – D’Arnaud isn’t going to win over scouts with his tools, but he’s a hard worker and gets results. He’ll be able to get on base enough to be an effective middle infielder and top of the order bat. If he becomes blocked as second, he can play short without a problem.
7. Zack Von Rosenberg, P – ZVR has the potential to be a #1 starter, but he’s really young (19). There is still a lot that can happen to him. He’s got a big frame that still being filled out (6’5”). He’s got 3 average to plus pitches, so he’s only got to work on the mental part of the game and keeping everything the same as he fills out.
8. Daniel McCutchen, P – McCutchen has 4 good pitches: a low-90s four seam fastball, a low-90s two seam fastball, a plus curve, and an OK change-up. His problem is he keeps the ball up too much and gives up a lot of homers. If he were to work on the 2 seamer and keep the ball down, he’d be more successful. Look for McCutchen to be pitching at the back end of the rotation this year.
9. Rudy Owens, P – Owens is your typical lefty – low-90s fastball with good off speed pitches. He’s got mid-rotation written all over him. He’ll need to play against the upper minors to make sure his control is good enough to get him to the majors. Worst case scenario is LOOGY.
10. Gorkys Hernandez, OF – Many people are down on Hernandez; maybe it’s because he’s been traded twice. He has speed, but doesn’t run the basepaths well. He’s got a moderate amount of power, but it’s more for doubles than homers. His speed and arm make him a natural for center, but he’s definitely blocked; could a third trade be on the horizon?
29. Philadelphia Phillies
Pre-trade Ranking: 11
They’ve kept the Major League team stocked at the expense of the minors. They’ve given up more than they received back for Lee. Aumont could possibly crack the top 100 next year, but it depends on how he does in the starting rotation.
1. Domonic Brown, OF – Brown is a high risk/high reward prospect. He’s still very raw, but the potential is starting to move to results. He’s got a long swing, but he generates power as he accelates the bat through the zone. He also needs to work on pitch recognition, but he’s made definite strides each year. Defensively, he’s got the speed for center but needs to work on reading the ball. He’s still got at least 1 year of minor league time before he makes it to the majors.
2. Phillippe Aumont, P – Aumont’s role is still up in the air. Last season, the Mariners moved him to the bullpen; the Phillies have announced he’ll be back in the rotation. The bullpen move was made because of his mechnics aren’t sound and there are injury concerns. He’s got a 2-seam sinking fastball, a 4-seam power fastball, and a great curve. The curve is inconsistent though. I’m not surprised if he ends up a closer.
3. Anthony Gose, OF – Gose is a work in progress. He’s a natural centerfielder with the potential to have some power in his bat. He’s working on his plate discipline and pitch recognition, which will help his power. His speed and glove are good enough to stick at center.
4. Domingo Santana, OF – Unlike most 16 year old prospects, Santana was playing in the U.S. in the Gulf Coast League. He’s already 6’5”, 200 lbs and still growing. His power is his best asset at this point. He was pretty patient, but struck out a lot due to inferior pitch recognition. He’s got a very strong arm and profiles as a corner outfielder. Since he’s still young, he’ could go either way in development.
5. Tyson Gillies, OF – Gillies, a 2009 Futures Game participant, is a speed first player. He’s got great plate disciple, but very little power. His defense is sound, but many question if he could be an everyday player.
6. Trevor May, P – May took a step forward last year, which was needed since the Phillies have been trading prospects like they are going out of style. He had a great K/9 (11.1), but needs to work on his control (5.0 BB/9). He’s got a low-90s fastball, with a solid change-up. He’s looking like a mid-rotation starter, if he can decrease his walks.
7. J.C. Ramirez, P – Ramirez had a terrible year this past season, but scouts are saying the new team and ballparks will help him (he pitched in a hitters park that killed his numbers). He’s got a mid-90s moving fastball and an above average slider. He’s working on adding a change-up, which will help him be a mid-rotation starter.
8. Antonio Bastardo, P – Bastardo is formally in the bullpen, according to the Phillies Brass. This should be very good for him, because he’ll rely less on secondary pitches and will limit the mount of work he’ll handle after injury concerns. His mid-90s fastball is his main pitch, and he has a change-up and slider that will keep hitters off balance. At worst, he’s a lefty setup man.
9. Sebastian Valle, C – Valle is another raw prospect for the Phillies. He’s been playing against older competition and has held his own. He’s very patient, but needs to work on his consistency. There are also concerns about his catching – he had too many passed balls and only threw out 18% of baserunners.
10. Jarred Cosart, P – Cosart looks pretty good right now. He’s got a plus potential breaking ball that complements his mid-90s fastball. The main concern is his mechanics; he’s a potential injury risk, considering he’s had health issues in the past.
30. Chicago White Sox
Pre-trade Ranking: 27
This system is extremely weak and took a hit when Gordon Beckham graduated to the majors. They have a couple of guys at are close to being into the top prospect status, but we’ll see how they do this year.
1. Tyler Flowers, C – He may be a rare specimen – a large bodied catcher that can handle the position. Flowers’ power has developed well in the last year. He won’t hit for average, but his production should be better than most catchers.
2. Dan Hudson, P – Hudson will be a back of the rotation starter, as he does everything well, but doesn’t stand out in one particular area. He looked pretty well in his MLB audition, so he could be in the rotation this year.
3. Jared Mitchell, OF – Mitchell can either be a star or a platoon player. He’s too patient, often missing good pitches. He’s very good defensively. The problem is his splits; if he can’t hit pitchers throwing from both sides of the mound, he’ll not be successful.
4. Brent Morel, 3B – Right now, the only thing keeping Morel out of the top prospect status is his power. If he can hit a few more homers at the upper levels, he’ll be a great sleeper. Too bad he’s block by Mark Teahen.
5. Jordan Danks, OF – Danks is a very patient, but strikes out often. If he can work on that for a full season at Triple A, he could be seen as the centerfielder of the future. This season will prove what type of player he can be.
6. Dayan Viciedo, 3B – Viciedo could easily jump up in the rankings if he can build upon his disappointing American debut. He showed little patience and power in Double A, which may have been a level too high for him. He’s got the build to be a prototypical third baseman, but needs to adapt to get there.
7. Santos Rodriguez, P – Rodriguez has the chance to be a top of the rotation starter, but he really needs to harness his stuff. If he can’t, he could end up like a Kyle Farnsworth reliever.
8. David Holmberg, P – Holmberg currently profiles as a back of the rotation starter, as he’s got the pitches but not the velocity. I don’t see his fast ball gaining more speed at this point.
9. John Ely, P – Ely has the potential to be an innings eater, with a downside of a long reliever. He’s got a good fastball with movement and a plus change. He won’t over power hitters.
10. Miguel Gonzalez, C – This catching prospect could be a sleeper this year. After spending the season in Rookie Ball, he should be in Hi A this year; he could even end the year in Double A if he continues to put up impressive numbers.